Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Sportsnet Now Plus
China	Migu
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 7
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Sweden	Viaplay
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+


	Sunderland		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.1	4.2
	1.7	4.2	4.33
	1.75	4	4.5	Watch
	1.72	4.1	4.38
	1.69	4.16	4.32	Watch
	1.73	3.9	4.2
	1.77	4.22	4.48	Watch
	1.75	4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.65)	4.09 ↑ (3.99)	4.36 ↓ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
55%

Draw
23.2%

Stoke City
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

23.7%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.5%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sunderland, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Sunderland - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Sunderland will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Stoke will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sunderland: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Moore S. (G) 32. Hume T. 13. O'Nien L. 33. Hjelde L. F. 42. Alese A. 50. Jones H. 4. Neil D. (C) 12. Mayenda E. 11. Rigg C. 22. Aouchiche A. 24. Connolly A.	1. Johansson V. (C) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. 3. Stevens E. 12. Seko T. 6. Burger W. 24. Moran A. 8. Baker L. 11. Koumas L. 9. Cannon T.
Substitutes
20. Abdul Samed S. 30. Aleksic M. 7. Bellingham J. 18. Isidor W. 41. Johnson Z. 26. Mepham C. 16. Noukeu B. (G) 15. Rusyn N. 47. Samuel-Ogunsuyi T.	10. Bae J. 13. Bonham J. (G) 14. Ennis N. 2. Gooch L. 18. Lawal B. 5. Rose M. 30. Sidibe S. 37. Tezgel E. 7. Vidigal A.
Coaches
Le Bris R.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Cannon T. (Pen),
23', Rigg C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Alese A. ↓, Johnson Z. ↑,
60', Rigg C. ↓, Aleksic M. ↑,
60', Stevens E. ↓, Gooch L. ↑,
60', Seko T. ↓, Sidibe S. ↑,
63', Baker L. 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Aleksic M. ⚽, Aouchiche A. (A),
72', Moran A. 🟨,
75', Koumas L. ↓, Bae J. ↑,
76', Cannon T. ↓, Ennis N. ↑,
79', Jones H. ↓, Abdul Samed S. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
93', Burger W. 🟨,
95', Burger W. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,
99', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
105', Hjelde L. F. ↓, Rusyn N. ↑,
111', Mayenda E. ↓, Samuel-Ogunsuyi T. ↑,
112', 1 - 2, Ennis N. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sunderland won 2.

Sunderland is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Stoke is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Sunderland is a favorite.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Sunderland won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 20:23 (average 1.1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sunderland won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:14 (average 1.7:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English League Championship
05.01.25	Sunderland - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
01.01.25	Sunderland - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
29.12.24	Stoke City - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Sunderland	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Sunderland - Norwich City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLTW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
04.01.25	Stoke City - Plymouth Argyle	0:0 ✺
01.01.25	Burnley - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
29.12.24	Stoke City - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Stoke City - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.12.24	Stoke City - Sunderland	1:0
07.12.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	2:1
27.01.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	3:1
21.10.23	Stoke City - Sunderland	2:1
04.03.23	Sunderland - Stoke City	1:5
20.08.22	Stoke City - Sunderland	0:1
English Premier League
14.01.17	Sunderland - Stoke City	1:3

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