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Málaga - Real Sociedad: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 9
  • Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)
  • Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Málaga Real Sociedad
    Málaga Real Sociedad
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.29 ↑
    (3.13)    		 3.65 ↑
    (3.58)    		 2.15 ↓
    (2.21)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Málaga
    29.1%    		Draw
    26.3%    		Real Sociedad
    44.6%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    30.4% 26.6% 43%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    31% 26.1% 42.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    3.6% 10.7% 85.7%

    Málaga - Real Sociedad Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 1 - 3.6%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 24 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad: 72.7% – 98.7%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +0.5 - Málaga (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - no (2.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Sociedad will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 1 - 25%). Real Sociedad (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainHerrero A. (C)
    31. SpainRafita
    20. SpainCalero F.
    15. SpainRecio A.
    12. SpainSalinas J.
    10. SpainLarrubia D.
    23. SpainMerino I.
      8. SpainDotor C.
    18. SpainMartinez P.
    21. SpainNino A.
      9. SpainChupe
    		  1. SpainRemiro A. (G)
    22. SpainFort H.
      6. SpainMartin J.
    19. SenegalSarr M.
      3. SpainMunoz A.
    14. JapanKubo T.
      4. SpainGorrotxategi J.
    18. SpainSoler C.
      7. SpainBarrenetxea A.
    10. SpainOyarzabal M. (C)
      9. IcelandOskarsson O.
    Substitutes
      7. MoroccoAbaida H.
    39. MoroccoAznou A.
      2. SwedenCajuste J.
      6. SpainEnriquez R.
      4. SpainGalilea E.
    17. SpainJauregi E.
    13. SpainLopez C. (G)
    22. SpainLorenzo D.
    11. SpainMunoz J.
      5. SpainPastor A.
      3. SpainPuga C.
    14. SpainRodriguez R.
    		27. SpainCarrera G.
    17. SpainGomez S.
    11. PortugalGuedes G.
    28. FranceLebarbier A.
    29. SpainMarchal A.
    13. SpainMarrero U. (G)
    12. KenyaOchieng J.
    16. SpainPacheco J.
    24. CroatiaSucic L.
      8. SpainTurrientes B.
    23. RussiaZakharyan A.
      5. SpainZubeldia I.
    Coaches
         SpainFunes J.
    		     USAMatarazzo P.

    Preview

  • A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 20th in the Relegation - LaLiga2 and 6th in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2.
  • Recent results have been tough for Málaga (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
  • Real Sociedad has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
  • Real Sociedad may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
  • Real Sociedad is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
  • Confirmed absences for Málaga: Cruz J. (Injury) Diarra M. (Calf Injury) Lobete J. (Knee Injury) Murillo D. (Knee Injury) Ochoa A. (Knee Injury).
  • Confirmed absences for Real Sociedad: Beitia L. (Ankle Injury) Marin P. (Red Card) Odriozola A. (Knee Injury).
  • In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Málaga has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:16 (averaging 1.1:1.1 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Málaga against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:9 goals (averaging 1:1.1 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    6Real Sociedad841312:15-313
    20Malaga80444:13-94

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Real Sociedad: 0.18% Malaga: 0.06%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Real Sociedad - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 43.04%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Málaga CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    09.10.26 Málaga - Espanyol 1:1 ✺
    20.09.26 Getafe - Málaga 1:0 ✺
    17.09.26 Málaga - Villarreal 1:3 ✺
    13.09.26 Celta de Vigo - Málaga 1:1 ✺
    06.09.26 Málaga - Levante 0:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2
    TLLTT
    - Real Sociedad
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Saint-Gilloise - Real Sociedad 1:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    11.10.26 Real Sociedad - Deportivo A Coruña 3:2 ✺
    Club Friendly
    02.10.26 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    20.09.26 Valencia - Real Sociedad 2:3 ✺
    UEFA Europa League
    17.09.26 Real Sociedad - Bournemouth 1:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8
    TWLWL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    07.01.24 Málaga - Real Sociedad 0:1
    Spanish LaLiga
    22.04.18 Málaga - Real Sociedad 2:0
    10.12.17 Real Sociedad - Málaga 0:2
    14.05.17 Real Sociedad - Málaga 2:2
    16.01.17 Málaga - Real Sociedad 0:2
    27.02.16 Real Sociedad - Málaga 1:1
    03.10.15 Málaga - Real Sociedad 3:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Málaga CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    23.10.26 Deportivo Alavés - Málaga ✺
    - Real Sociedad
    Spanish LaLiga
    25.10.26 Real Sociedad - Levante ✺
    UEFA Europa League
    22.10.26 Lillestrøm SK - Real Sociedad ✺

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