Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go
Pakistan	Tapmad
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Coupang Play


	Machida Zelvia		Melbourne City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	4.75	7.9	Watch
	1.41	4.86	5.99	Watch
	1.43	5.07	6.35	Watch
	1.4	4.74	7.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.41)	4.86 (4.86)	6.89 ↑ (5.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
67.1%

Draw
19.3%

Melbourne City
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

19%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

19.9%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Machida Zelvia - Melbourne City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Melbourne City (2.03) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 3. Shoji G. (C) 19. Nakayama Y. 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 18. Shimoda H. 11. Masuyama A. 10. Na Sang-Ho 7. Soma Y. 90. Oh Se-Hun	1. Beach P. (G) 36. Shillington H. 27. Trewin K. 22. Ferreyra G. 13. Atkinson N. (C) 30. Kuen A. 19. Schreiber Z. 39. Durakovic E. 38. Baker B. 47. Rahmani K. 17. Caputo M.
Substitutes
44. Arai Y. (G) 28. Cha Je-Hoon 9. Fujio S. 26. Hayashi K. 46. Higuchi K. 2. Imai T. 60. Mayaka C. 13. Morita T. (G) 22. Numata T. 8. Sento K. 23. Shirasaki R.	37. Antoniou P. 4. Bonetig L. 52. Boston I. 45. Kalms R. 10. Kanamori T. 44. Kutleshi B. 20. Mazzeo B. 15. Nabbout A. 34. Necovski J. 33. Ochsenham D. (G)
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Vidmar A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Shoji G. (Own goal),
24', 1 - 1, Mochizuki H. ⚽, Soma Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Baker B. ↓, Kanamori T. ↑,
55', Nakayama Y. 🟨,
70', Caputo M. ↓, Nabbout A. ↑,
77', Mochizuki H. ↓, Hayashi K. ↑,
79', Shillington H. ↓, Antoniou P. ↑,
79', Durakovic E. ↓, Mazzeo B. ↑,
82', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
88', Kuen A. ↓, Kutleshi B. ↑,
90', Shimoda H. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Nabbout A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Melbourne City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Machida Zelvia has had a series of away games.

In this match, Machida Zelvia is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
25.10.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Machida Zelvia	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.25	Shanghai Port - Machida Zelvia	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
18.10.25	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Machida Zelvia	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Johor Darul Takzim - Machida Zelvia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWTLT
- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
31.10.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Melbourne City - Perth Glory	4:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.25	Melbourne City - Buriram United	2:1 ✺
Australian A-League
18.10.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
01.10.25	Vissel Kobe - Melbourne City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWTL

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