Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.5	9
	1.29	6.5	8.25
	1.31	5.8	9.6
	1.32	6.3	9.3
	1.32	6.31	8.64	Watch
	1.25	5.75	9
	1.36	6.2	8.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.4)	6.05 ↑ (5.19)	8.87 ↑ (7.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
73.3%

Draw
15.8%

Aston Villa
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

18.5%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

17.5%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	6.5%	12.9%

Manchester City - Aston Villa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (6.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trafford J. (G) 82. Lewis R. 5. Stones J. 3. Dias R. 6. Ake N. 20. Silva B. (C) 14. Nico 42. Semenyo A. 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 47. Foden P.	40. Bizot M. (G) 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 22. Maatsen I. 26. Bogarde L. 21. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
21. Ait-Nouri R. 68. Alleyne M. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 10. Cherki R. 11. Doku J. 24. Gvardiol J. 8. Kovacic M. 7. Marmoush O. 27. Nunes M.	83. Burrowes B. 2. Cash M. 12. Digne L. 53. Hemmings G. 7. McGinn J. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Semenyo A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Garcia A. ↓, Cash M. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽,
58', Semenyo A. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
59', Silva B. ↓, Kovacic M. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Watkins O. ⚽, Barkley R. (A),
73', Douglas Luiz ↓, Tielemans Y. ↑,
73', Bogarde L. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
73', Lindelof V. ↓, Torres P. ↑,
77', Reijnders T. ↓, Doku J. ↑,
77', Ake N. ↓, Ait-Nouri R. ↑,
78', Stones J. ↓, Gvardiol J. ↑,
82', Lewis R. 🟨,
86', Barkley R. ↓, McGinn J. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Man City is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

Aston Villa is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Man City is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Kamara B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Alysson (Muscle Injury) Martinez E. (Finger Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 48:16. (average 2.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:7. (average 3.1:0.8).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Manchester City: 20.91% Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	16:5	11	18
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.36%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
19.05.26	Bournemouth - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
16.05.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
13.05.26	Manchester City - Crystal Palace	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Manchester City - Brentford	3:0 ✺
04.05.26	Everton - Manchester City	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWWWT
- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
20.05.26	Freiburg - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
15.05.26	Aston Villa - Liverpool	4:2 ✺
10.05.26	Burnley - Aston Villa	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
03.05.26	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
26.10.25	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0
22.04.25	Manchester City - Aston Villa	2:1
21.12.24	Aston Villa - Manchester City	2:1
03.04.24	Manchester City - Aston Villa	4:1
06.12.23	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0
12.02.23	Manchester City - Aston Villa	3:1
03.09.22	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:1

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