What is the expert prediction for Manchester City vs Aston Villa?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Manchester City vs Aston Villa. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Manchester City vs Aston Villa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, May 24, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport PSL
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 2, ESPN
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 8, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	SÝN, SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252
Japan	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports, Tubi TV
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 7
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1, V Sport Premier League 2
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Philippines	Setanta Sports
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport PSL
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Manchester City		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.5	9
	1.29	6.5	8.25
	1.31	5.8	9.6
	1.32	6.3	9.3
	1.32	6.31	8.64	Watch
	1.25	5.75	9
	1.36	6.2	8.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.4)	6.05 ↑ (5.19)	8.87 ↑ (7.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
73.3%

Draw
15.8%

Aston Villa
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

18.5%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

17.5%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	6.5%	12.9%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (6.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trafford J. (G) 82. Lewis R. 5. Stones J. 3. Dias R. 6. Ake N. 20. Silva B. (C) 14. Nico 42. Semenyo A. 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 47. Foden P.	40. Bizot M. (G) 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 22. Maatsen I. 26. Bogarde L. 21. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
21. Ait-Nouri R. 68. Alleyne M. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 10. Cherki R. 11. Doku J. 24. Gvardiol J. 8. Kovacic M. 7. Marmoush O. 27. Nunes M.	83. Burrowes B. 2. Cash M. 12. Digne L. 53. Hemmings G. 7. McGinn J. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Semenyo A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Garcia A. ↓, Cash M. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽,
58', Semenyo A. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
59', Silva B. ↓, Kovacic M. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Watkins O. ⚽, Barkley R. (A),
73', Douglas Luiz ↓, Tielemans Y. ↑,
73', Bogarde L. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
73', Lindelof V. ↓, Torres P. ↑,
77', Reijnders T. ↓, Doku J. ↑,
77', Ake N. ↓, Ait-Nouri R. ↑,
78', Stones J. ↓, Gvardiol J. ↑,
82', Lewis R. 🟨,
86', Barkley R. ↓, McGinn J. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Man City is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

Aston Villa is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Man City is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Kamara B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Alysson (Muscle Injury) Martinez E. (Finger Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 48:16. (average 2.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:7. (average 3.1:0.8).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.36%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
19.05.26	Bournemouth - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
16.05.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
13.05.26	Manchester City - Crystal Palace	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Manchester City - Brentford	3:0 ✺
04.05.26	Everton - Manchester City	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWWWT
- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
20.05.26	Freiburg - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
15.05.26	Aston Villa - Liverpool	4:2 ✺
10.05.26	Burnley - Aston Villa	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
03.05.26	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
26.10.25	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0
22.04.25	Manchester City - Aston Villa	2:1
21.12.24	Aston Villa - Manchester City	2:1
03.04.24	Manchester City - Aston Villa	4:1
06.12.23	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0
12.02.23	Manchester City - Aston Villa	3:1
03.09.22	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:1

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