Match Info

Premier League - Round 37

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Solh Sports 1
Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8, Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN, SÝN Sport
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Indonesia	SCTV, Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	FOX One, Tubi TV
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Setanta Sports
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1, CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 5
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBCSN, NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Aston Villa		Liverpool

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.75	2.4
	3.25	4	1.98
	2.78	3.7	2.42
	2.8	3.75	2.46
	2.77	3.8	2.46	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.3
	2.87	3.76	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.6)	3.75 ↓ (4.09)	2.36 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
33.7%

Draw
25.6%

Liverpool
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

23.2%

50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

22.6%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aston Villa's performance.

Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Liverpool might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aston Villa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Liverpool could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.7%	40%	44.3%

Aston Villa - Liverpool Predictions

Users Predictions: 69 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 11 - 15.9%). Liverpool will win (votes: 31 - 44.9%). It will Tie (votes: 27 - 39.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 33.2% – 56.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Liverpool (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 7 - 77.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Liverpool (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Aston Villa (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Liverpool (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 63.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 3. Lindelof V. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	25. Mamardashvili G. (G) 2. Gomez J. 5. Konate I. 4. van Dijk V. (C) 6. Kerkez M. 38. Gravenberch R. 10. Mac Allister A. 8. Szoboszlai D. 17. Jones C. 73. Ngumoha R. 18. Gakpo C.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 21. Douglas Luiz 16. Garcia A. 22. Maatsen I. 19. Sancho J.	14. Chiesa F. 53. McConnell J. 75. Ndiaye T. 42. Nyoni T. 26. Robertson A. 11. Salah M. 7. Wirtz F. 28. Woodman F. (G) 79. Wright W.
Coaches
Emery U.	Slot A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', Cash M. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Rogers M. ⚽, Digne L. (A),
45+3', Watkins O. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Lindelof V. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, van Dijk V. ⚽, Szoboszlai D. (A),
57', 2 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
62', Gomez J. 🟨,
66', Gomez J. ↓, Chiesa F. ↑,
66', Gravenberch R. ↓, Wirtz F. ↑,
66', McGinn J. 🟨,
73', 3 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽,
74', Gakpo C. ↓, Salah M. ↑,
85', Buendia E. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
89', 4 - 1, McGinn J. ⚽, Watkins O. (A),
90', McGinn J. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
90', Tielemans Y. ↓, Douglas Luiz ↑,
90+2', 4 - 2, van Dijk V. ⚽, Szoboszlai D. (A),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 0.

Aston Villa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Liverpool's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Liverpool may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Muscle Injury) Elliott H. (Loan agreement) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Onana A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Liverpool: Bajcetic S. (Hamstring Injury) Bradley C. (Knee Injury) Ekitike H. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Endo W. (Foot Injury) Leoni G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Liverpool: Alisson (Muscle Injury) Wirtz F. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 28:43. (average 1.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:27. (average 2.1:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7:4	3	9
14	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
10.05.26	Burnley - Aston Villa	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
03.05.26	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
25.04.26	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TWLLL
- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
09.05.26	Liverpool - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Manchester United - Liverpool	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Liverpool - Crystal Palace	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Everton - Liverpool	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.04.26	Liverpool - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
01.11.25	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0
19.02.25	Aston Villa - Liverpool	2:2
09.11.24	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0
13.05.24	Aston Villa - Liverpool	3:3
03.09.23	Liverpool - Aston Villa	3:0
20.05.23	Liverpool - Aston Villa	1:1
26.12.22	Aston Villa - Liverpool	1:3

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