Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Old Trafford (Manchester)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Match 4
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India	Disney+ Hotstar
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
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New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1, Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Sport 1, K+, TV 360
World	Sport 24


	Manchester United		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.7	2.6
	2.55	3.7	2.62
	2.13	3.9	3.25
	2.57	3.79	2.65	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.5
	2.69	3.79	2.54	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.1)	3.71 ↓ (3.85)	2.7 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Manchester United
38.6%

Draw
25.9%

Newcastle United
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

24.7%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

24.8%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Manchester United's form might have worsened.

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Manchester United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.6%	20.3%	31.1%

Manchester United - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 35 - 48.6%). Newcastle will win (votes: 22 - 30.6%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 37.1% – 60.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 10 - 50%). Newcastle (votes: 6 - 30%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Man Utd (1.85) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.15) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 11 - 50%). Newcastle (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Lammens S. (G) 6. Martinez Li. (C) 26. Heaven A. 23. Shaw L. 2. Dalot D. 18. Casemiro 25. Ugarte M. 13. Dorgu P. 10. Cunha M. 7. Mount M. 30. Sesko B.	32. Ramsdale A. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 3. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 41. Ramsey J. 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
1. Bayindir A. (G) 38. Fletcher J. 39. Fletcher T. 33. Fredricson T. 61. Lacey S. 12. Malacia T. 70. Mantato B. 15. Yoro L. 11. Zirkzee J.	85. Alabi S. 11. Barnes H. 7. Joelinton 37. Murphy A. 62. Neave S. 1. Pope N. (G) 61. Shahar L. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.
Coaches
Amorim R.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Dorgu P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mount M. ↓, Fletcher J. ↑,
60', Sesko B. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
61', Casemiro ↓, Yoro L. ↑,
68', Ramsey J. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
68', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
68', Murphy J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
69', Shaw L. 🟨,
73', Tonali S. 🟨,
77', Tonali S. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
88', Martinez Li. ↓, Fredricson T. ↑,
88', Shaw L. ↓, Malacia T. ↑,
90+2', Cunha M. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Man Utd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Man Utd: Diallo A. (International duty) Fernandes B. (Thigh Injury) Maguire H. (Hamstring Injury) Mainoo K. (Calf Injury) Mazraoui N. (International duty) Mbeumo B. (International duty) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Burn D. (Chest Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Lascelles J. (Muscle Injury) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Pope N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:27. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 2.1:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester United
English Premier League
21.12.25	Aston Villa - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
15.12.25	Manchester United - Bournemouth	4:4 ✺
08.12.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester United	1:4 ✺
04.12.25	Manchester United - West Ham United	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Crystal Palace - Manchester United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTWTW
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.25	Sunderland - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
13.04.25	Newcastle United - Manchester United	4:1
30.12.24	Manchester United - Newcastle United	0:2
15.05.24	Manchester United - Newcastle United	3:2
02.12.23	Newcastle United - Manchester United	1:0
English League Cup
01.11.23	Manchester United - Newcastle United	0:3
English Premier League
02.04.23	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:0
English League Cup
26.02.23	Manchester United - Newcastle United	2:0

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