Match Info

Serie B - Round 27

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Danilo Martelli (Mantova)

Referee: Turrini N. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Mantova		Carrarese

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.65	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.95
	2.68	3	2.68
	2.87	3.02	2.85
	2.7	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.7
	2.76	3.11	2.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.23)	3.08 ↓ (3.27)	2.75 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mantova
35.2%

Draw
30.6%

Carrarese
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

28.6%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

27.6%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mantova's form might have worsened.

Carrarese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mantova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carrarese, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	64.3%	7.1%

Mantova - Carrarese Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Carrarese will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 13. Meroni A. 27. Castellini A. 17. Radaelli N. 21. Trimboli S. 80. Kouda R. 15. Goncalves T. 30. Bragantini D. 77. Buso N. 9. Mancuso L. (C)	1. Bleve M. (G) 37. Calabrese N. 4. Illanes J. 3. Imperiale M. (C) 18. Schiavi N. 72. Zanon S. 70. Hasa L. 17. Zuelli E. 73. Rouhi J. 21. Rubino T. 9. Abiuso F.
Substitutes
50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 28. Caprini M. 29. Cella S. 20. Ligue J. 96. Maggioni T. 23. Marras T. 7. Mensah D. 36. Paoletti F. 19. Ruocco F. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D. 98. Zuccon F.	7. Belloni N. 28. Di Stefano F. 32. Finotto M. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 12. Garofani G. (G) 25. Lordkipanidze D. 8. Melegoni F. 77. Parlanti G. 26. Ruggeri F. 44. Sekulov N. 92. Torregrossa E.
Coaches
Modesto F.	Calabro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Bragantini D. ⚽,
40', Kouda R. 🟨,
45+2', Schiavi N. ↓, Finotto M. ↑,
45+3', Meroni A. 🟨,
45+3', Illanes J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rouhi J. ↓, Belloni N. ↑,
53', Hasa L. 🟨,
55', Belloni N. 🟨,
60', Abiuso F. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,
60', Rubino T. ↓, Melegoni F. ↑,
62', Mancuso L. ↓, Mensah D. ↑,
62', Bragantini D. ↓, Ruocco F. ↑,
71', Mensah D. 🟨,
76', Radaelli N. ↓, Cella S. ↑,
77', Buso N. ↓, Zuccon F. ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Hasa L. ⚽, Zanon S. (A),
84', Hasa L. ↓, Parlanti G. ↑,
90+1', Zanon S. 🟨,
90+2', Ruocco F. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 12).

In recent matches, Mantova has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carrarese has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Injury) Bonfanti N. (Inactive) Cella S. (Inactive) Falletti C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Carrarese: Accornero F. (Inactive) Bouah D. (Inactive) Salamon B. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	2:6	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
21.02.26	Mantova - Sampdoria	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Catanzaro - Mantova	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Reggiana - Mantova	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mantova - Bari	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Pescara - Mantova	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLWT
- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
21.02.26	Carrarese - Monza	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Modena - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Padova - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Carrarese - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Venezia - Carrarese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.12.25	Carrarese - Mantova	0:0
09.05.25	Mantova - Carrarese	2:1
20.10.24	Carrarese - Mantova	1:1

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