Match Info

Serie B - Round 33

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Danilo Martelli (Mantova)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Mantova		Virtus Entella

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.82	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.98	Watch
	2.53	3.15	3.16
	2.2	3.19	3.37	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.51	3.11	3.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (1.8)	3.09 ↓ (3.44)	3.04 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mantova
38.6%

Draw
30.4%

Virtus Entella
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

27.2%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

29.9%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mantova's form might have worsened.

Virtus Entella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Virtus Entella's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+18.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mantova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus Entella than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Virtus Entella, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	5.6%	22.2%

Mantova - Virtus Entella Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Virtus Entella will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mantova: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mantova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 29. Cella S. 96. Maggioni T. 17. Radaelli N. 21. Trimboli S. 10. Wieser D. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 30. Bragantini D. 77. Buso N. 9. Mancuso L. (C)	22. Del Frate F. (G) 23. Parodi L. (C) 6. Tiritiello A. 15. Marconi I. 7. Bariti D. 24. Franzoni A. 5. Squizzato N. 8. Karic N. 26. Di Mario S. 10. Cuppone L. 17. Tirelli M.
Substitutes
22. Andrenacci L. (G) 28. Caprini M. 5. Chrysopoulos K. 18. Falletti C. 20. Ligue J. 33. Marai C. 23. Marras T. 7. Mensah D. 36. Paoletti F. 19. Ruocco F. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 98. Zuccon F.	3. Alborghetti M. 77. Boccadamo A. 27. Dalla Vecchia M. 19. Debenedetti A. 57. Del Lungo T. 11. Guiu B. 94. Mezzoni F. 4. Nichetti M. 38. Pilati A. 99. Siaulys O. (G) 9. Stabile D. P. 46. Turicchia R.
Coaches
Modesto F.	Chiappella A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Mancuso L. ↓, Mensah D. ↑,
31', Modesto F. 🟨,
45+4', Marconi I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Buso N. ↓, Ruocco F. ↑,
57', Cuppone L. ↓, Guiu B. ↑,
57', Marconi I. ↓, Alborghetti M. ↑,
58', Dembele A. 🟨,
61', Tiritiello A. 🟨,
69', Tirelli M. ↓, Debenedetti A. ↑,
70', Bariti D. ↓, Mezzoni F. ↑,
76', Wieser D. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
76', Bragantini D. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
77', Karic N. ↓, Dalla Vecchia M. ↑,
81', Radaelli N. 🟨,
83', Squizzato N. 🟨,
84', 1 - 0, Marras T. ⚽,
85', Marras T. 🟨,
90+4', Paoletti F. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Mantova is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Muscle Injury) Bonfanti N. (Ankle Injury) Castellini A. (Yellow Cards) Kouda R. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Virtus Entella: Benedetti L. (Yellow Cards) Colombi S. (Inactive) Mezzoni F. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mantova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11
14	Entella	6	1	3	2	8:7	1	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
21.03.26	Modena - Mantova	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Mantova - Cesena	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Empoli - Mantova	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Mantova - Juve Stabia	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTWL
- Virtus Entella
Italian Serie B
22.03.26	Virtus Entella - Reggiana	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Pescara - Virtus Entella	3:0 ✺
15.03.26	Virtus Entella - Avellino	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Virtus Entella	0:1 ✺
03.03.26	Virtus Entella - Modena	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
14.09.25	Virtus Entella - Mantova	1:0

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