Match Info

Serie B - Round 30

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Mantova

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.5
	2.08	3.35	4.03
	2	3.4	3.7	Watch
	2	3.1	3.6
	2.03	3.22	3.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.98)	3.29 ↓ (3.5)	3.72 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
46.3%

Draw
28.5%

Mantova
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

26.7%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

26.7%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	33.3%	20%

Empoli - Mantova Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Mantova will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Empoli: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (G) 20. Lovato M. (C) 34. Guarino G. 5. Obaretin N. 26. Candela A. 14. Yepes G. 8. Magnino L. 7. Elia S. 15. Ceesay J. 10. Ilie R. 11. Shpendi S.	24. Bardi F. (G) 13. Meroni A. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 21. Trimboli S. 80. Kouda R. 17. Radaelli N. 30. Bragantini D. 77. Buso N. 9. Mancuso L. (C)
Substitutes
2. Curto M. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 24. Ebuehi T. 17. Fila D. 32. Haas N. 25. Ignacchiti L. 27. Moruzzi B. 19. Nasti M. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 4. Romagnoli S. 70. Saporiti E.	28. Caprini M. 5. Chrysopoulos K. 3. Dembele A. 18. Falletti C. 15. Goncalves T. 20. Ligue J. 96. Maggioni T. 23. Marras T. 7. Mensah D. 36. Paoletti F. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D.
Coaches
Caserta F.	Modesto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Bragantini D. ⚽, Trimboli S. (A),
37', 0 - 2, Cella S. ⚽,
44', Magnino L. 🟨,
45+1', Ilie R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Benaissa-Yahia F. ↓, Goncalves T. ↑,
46', Ilie R. ↓, Nasti M. ↑,
46', Obaretin N. ↓, Moruzzi B. ↑,
49', Bragantini D. 🟨,
50', 1 - 2, Shpendi S. ⚽, Elia S. (A),
57', Bragantini D. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
57', Buso N. ↓, Caprini M. ↑,
67', Mancuso L. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
72', Ceesay J. ↓, Saporiti E. ↑,
72', Candela A. ↓, Ebuehi T. ↑,
80', Magnino L. ↓, Haas N. ↑,
84', Bardi F. 🟨,
84', 2 - 2, Saporiti E. ⚽, Elia S. (A),
88', Radaelli N. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
90+6', Nasti M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Empoli is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mantova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Empoli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Ghion A. (Inactive) Pellegri P. (Injury)

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Injury) Bonfanti N. (Inactive) Ligue J. (Inactive) Muci N. (Inactive) Ruocco F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Empoli: Popov B. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Empoli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11
13	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6:10	-4	6

Last Results with these Odds

Mantova - the odds 3.56 are the expected chance of winning is 26.21%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
08.03.26	Catanzaro - Empoli	3:2 ✺
04.03.26	Bari - Empoli	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Empoli - Cesena	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Frosinone - Empoli	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Empoli - Reggiana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTTT
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
08.03.26	Mantova - Juve Stabia	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mantova - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Mantova - Sampdoria	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Catanzaro - Mantova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
21.12.25	Mantova - Empoli	0:1

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