Match Info

J3 League - Round 10

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Kagoshima United

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.20	2.05
	3.05	3.25	2.08	Watch
	3.21	3.30	2.24
	3.19	3.23	2.24	Watch
	3.15	3.10	2.19
	3.22	3.22	2.23	Watch
	3.20	3.20	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (3.05)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	2.16 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
29%

Draw
28.6%

Kagoshima United
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

27.9%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

27.4%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 6. Noda H. 4. Minoda K. 16. Miyabe T. (C) 43. Kaneko K. 22. Saso K. 36. Matsumura G. 13. Murakami H. 40. Higuchi D. 18. Sato R. 19. Tanaka S.	31. Sakata D. (G) 35. Egawa G. (C) 5. Yamada Y. 36. Ikeda J. 44. Aoki Y. 7. Tanaka W. 27. Kawashima K. 14. Yoshio K. 2. Saga R. 18. Kawamura K. 9. Arita R.
Substitutes
38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 11. Kaneko S. 48. Kawakami K. 30. Kitazume K. 23. Koma R. (G) 32. Kunori S. 5. Shirai T. 17. Taguchi Y.	20. Endo M. 8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 99. Juanma Delgado 21. Kawakami K. (G) 16. Muramatsu K. 13. Nagamine Y. 55. Nakayama K. 22. Takahashi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Kawamura K. ↓, Takahashi A. ↑,
73', Tanaka S. ↓, Taguchi Y. ↑,
73', Sato R. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
74', Tanaka W. ↓, Endo M. ↑,
74', Arita R. ↓, Juanma Delgado ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Taguchi Y. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Kawashima K. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
81', Egawa G. ↓, Nagamine Y. ↑,
84', Minoda K. 🟨,
90+1', Saso K. ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
90+4', Murakami H. ↓, Shirai T. ↑,
90+8', Taguchi Y. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 17th and 1st in the Promotion - J2 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1.

Matsumoto Yamaga has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kagoshima United shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Matsumoto Yamaga could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Kagoshima United is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Matsumoto Yamaga has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:14 (averaging 1.7:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Matsumoto Yamaga against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 4:7 goals (averaging 1.3:2.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kagoshima Utd	10	7	2	1	19:11	8	23
13	Yamaga	10	2	5	3	9:11	-2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 29.24%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
03.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWWTL
- Kagoshima United
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kagoshima United	2:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
04.10.26	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Kagoshima United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
02.11.25	Kagoshima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2
21.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:1
19.08.23	Kagoshima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2
27.05.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	2:4
14.08.22	Kagoshima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	4:2
26.03.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:2

Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide