Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 28 November 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	beIN Sports
Germany	Amazon Prime Video
Hungary	Sport 1
Italy	Canale 5
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Fotboll
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Milan		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.3
	2.15	3.5	3.3
	2.18	3.55	3.4	Watch
	2.21	3.58	3.42
	2.19	3.58	3.42
	2.05	3.5	3.3
	2.22	3.64	3.62
	2.14	3.55	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.99)	3.55 ↓ (3.63)	3.4 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 0.1%, offered by

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Network on TV: Galavision

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Current Win Probability

Milan
44.6%

Draw
27.1%

Borussia Dortmund
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

26.3%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

27.1%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.3%	37.9%	13.8%

Milan - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 28 - 48.3%). Borussia D will win (votes: 8 - 13.8%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 35.4% – 61.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (G) 2. Calabria D. (C) 28. Thiaw M. 23. Tomori F. 19. Hernandez T. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 7. Adli Y. 14. Reijnders T. 21. Chukwueze S. 9. Giroud O. 11. Pulisic C.	1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 5. Bensebaini R. 23. Can E. (C) 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Malen D. 11. Reus M. 43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 14. Fullkrug N.
Substitutes
95. Bartesaghi D. 42. Florenzi A. 15. Jovic L. 33. Krunic R. 83. Mirante A. (G) 69. Nava L. (G) 32. Pobega T. 70. Traore C.	27. Adeyemi K. 42. Blank H. 19. Brandt J. 9. Haller S. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 6. Ozcan S. 7. Reyna G. 17. Wolf M.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Terzic E.

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Recently Borussia D have a series of home games.

Milan will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Milan: Bennacer I. (Knee Injury) Caldara M. (Ankle Injury) Kalulu P. (Knee Injury) Leao R. (Muscle Injury) Musah Y. (Yellow Cards) Okafor N. (Injury) Pellegrino M. (Leg Injury) Sportiello M. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Duranville J. (Thigh Injury) Meunier T. (Inactive) Morey M. (Inactive) Nmecha F. (Hip Injury) Sule N. (Illness)

There are questionable in Milan: Kjaer S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Adeyemi K. (Illness) Haller S. (Illness) Sabitzer M. (Muscle Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Milan won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Milan won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
25.11.23	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
11.11.23	Lecce - Milan	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.11.23	Milan - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.11.23	Milan - Udinese	0:1 ✺
29.10.23	Napoli - Milan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWLT
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
25.11.23	Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:2 ✺
11.11.23	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.11.23	Borussia Dortmund - Newcastle United	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.11.23	Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
01.11.23	Borussia Dortmund - Hoffenheim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
04.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Milan	0:0
International Champions Cup
18.07.17	Milan - Borussia Dortmund	1:3

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