Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 30 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Trujillo F. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Millonarios		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.55	3.7	6.4	Watch
	1.56	4.05	6.39
	1.53	4.08	6.01	Watch
	1.53	3.75	6
	1.54	3.92	5.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.52)	3.92 ↓ (4.02)	6.12 ↑ (6.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
60.7%

Draw
23.9%

Fortaleza CEIF
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

23.2%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

22.6%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	7.7%	0%

Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Millonarios (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Millonarios will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Novoa D. (G) 30. Viveros S. 26. Llinas A. 4. Elizalde E. 17. Arias J. 22. Valencia S. 19. Garcia M. 18. Urena R. 14. Silva D. (C) 27. Contreras R. 23. Castro L.	32. Barragan M. (G) 4. Marulanda J. 18. Balanta J. 6. Diaz Y. 15. Cuero S. 14. Pico L. (C) 17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 10. Velasquez J. 33. Arroyo A. 26. Rivas Torres R. D. 9. Herrera J.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 20. Banguero D. 33. Castro A. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 1. De Amores G. (G) 35. Mosquera S. 7. Quintero D. 3. Samuel M. 28. Vega S.	16. Cajares J. 7. Martinez J. 5. Medina Obando J. 8. Navarro S. 20. Orozco C. 19. Pulicastro F. 24. Salas J. 1. Silva M. (G) 31. Vivas S.
Coaches
Bustos F.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Herrera J. ⚽, Marulanda J. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Castro L. ⚽,
30', Arias J. 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Valencia S. ⚽, Viveros S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Herrera J. 🟨,
57', 2 - 2, Herrera J. ⚽, Marulanda J. (A),
62', Balanta Carabali K. A. 🟨,
64', Contreras R. 🟨,
64', Viveros S. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
64', Diaz Y. 🟨,
70', Balanta J. 🟨,
72', Rivas Torres R. D. ↓, Cajares J. ↑,
80', Velasquez J. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
81', Garcia M. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
81', Silva D. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
84', 🟨,
84', Balanta Carabali K. A. 🟨,
90+4', Valencia S. ↓, Banguero D. ↑,
90+6', Pico L. 🟨,
90+6', Castro L. 🟨,
90+7', Novoa D. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 5.

Millonarios is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fortaleza has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Millonarios is the team to beat.

We predict that Millonarios will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 2.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19:12	7	22
16	Fortaleza	13	1	8	4	14:19	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.36%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
21.03.26	Once Caldas - Millonarios	1:4 ✺
17.03.26	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Millonarios - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWLWW
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
24.03.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo Pasto	1:2 ✺
19.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
21.09.25	Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF	3:2
06.04.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Millonarios	0:2
16.10.24	Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1
30.03.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Millonarios	1:2
Colombian Copa
17.08.22	Fortaleza CEIF - Millonarios	2:3
27.07.22	Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF	3:0

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