Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 29

Date: 28 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Haines A. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.2	2.8
	2.55	3.1	2.75
	2.65	3.25	2.75
	2.55	3.1	2.7
	2.7	3.13	2.92
	2.55	3.1	2.8
	2.59	3.22	2.78	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.81)	3.16 ↓ (3.28)	2.78 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
36.3%

Draw
29.8%

Exeter City
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

28.4%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

28.2%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	22.2%	27.8%

Milton Keynes Dons - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Exeter will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 13).

MK Dons has the most likely position - 20 (13.32%), has project points - 49, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (28%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Exeter has the most likely position - 16 (10.9%), has project points - 58, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 19, small importance 26, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

MK Dons is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Exeter is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Exeter could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches MK Dons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams MK Dons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League One
24.01.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town	0:1 ✺
21.01.23	Forest Green Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
14.01.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Lincoln City	0:0 ✺
01.01.23	Plymouth Argyle - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1 ✺
29.12.22	Peterborough United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWTLL
- Exeter City
English League One
21.01.23	Portsmouth - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
14.01.23	Exeter City - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
01.01.23	Oxford United - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
29.12.22	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	3:4 ✺
26.12.22	Exeter City - Portsmouth	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
03.09.22	Exeter City - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
English League Two
02.02.19	Exeter City - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1
25.08.18	Milton Keynes Dons - Exeter City	1:0
English League One
10.03.12	Milton Keynes Dons - Exeter City	N/A

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