Match Info

Serie B - Round 38

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino)

Referee: Di Marco D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Avellino		Modena

	1	X	2
	1.49	4	6	Watch
	1.88	3.4	3.9
	1.55	3.9	5.7	Watch
	1.56	4.15	6.66
	1.53	4.2	5.88	Watch
	1.53	3.8	5.5
	1.54	4.05	5.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.88)	3.93 ↑ (3.43)	5.64 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
59.4%

Draw
23.9%

Modena
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

27.1%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

26.6%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avellino's performance.

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Modena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avellino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Modena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	6.7%	3.3%

Avellino - Modena Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Avellino (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Avellino (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Avellino will win (54 of 60 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.41% – 97.59%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Avellino will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 4. Izzo A. 56. Enrici P. 2. Missori F. 24. Sounas D. 6. Palmiero L. 39. Besaggio M. 94. Insigne R. 9. Patierno C. (C) 10. Russo R.	78. Bagheria F. (G) 28. Adorni D. (C) 25. Dellavalle A. 33. Cauz C. 90. Imputato A. 71. Wiafe S. 80. Arnaboldi P. 18. Pyyhtia N. 29. Cotali M. 11. Mendes P. 9. Gliozzi E.
Substitutes
21. Armellino M. 14. Biasci T. 30. Daffara G. (G) 11. D'Andrea L. 16. Kumi J. 27. Le Borgne A. 20. Palumbo M. 8. Pandolfi L. 53. Sassi J. (G) 18. Sgarbi L. 7. Tutino G. 60. Volpe U.	2. Beyuku G. 24. Colpo E. 92. Defrel G. 99. De Luca M. 6. Fabbri T. M. 94. Guiyong F. 13. Laidani A. (G) 12. Maran A. (G) 17. Massolin Y. 19. Nador S. 5. Sersanti A.
Coaches
Ballardini D.	Sottil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Pyyhtia N. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Bagheria F. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gliozzi E. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
46', Pyyhtia N. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
49', Izzo A. 🟨,
62', Cauz C. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
73', Wiafe S. ↓, Fabbri T. M. ↑,
76', Insigne R. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
79', Mendes P. ↓, De Luca M. ↑,
87', Russo R. ↓, Sgarbi L. ↑,
88', Patierno C. ↓, Biasci T. ↑,
90+1', Besaggio M. ↓, Kumi J. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Avellino is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Avellino: Fontanarosa A. (Red Card) Iannarilli A. (Inactive) Milani A. (Inactive) Reale F. (Muscle Injury) Simic L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Modena: Ambrosino G. (Red Card) Chichizola L. (Injury) Defrel G. (Inactive) Gliozzi E. (Injury) Santoro S. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Modena: Gerli F. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Avellino won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11:7	4	10
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Avellino - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.6%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Empoli - Avellino	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Avellino - Bari	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Mantova - Avellino	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Avellino - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Palermo - Avellino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWTL
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Modena - Reggiana	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Monza - Modena	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Modena - Frosinone	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Catanzaro - Modena	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Modena	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1
23.01.16	Modena - Avellino	1:1
12.09.15	Avellino - Modena	2:0
02.04.15	Avellino - Modena	1:0
08.11.14	Modena - Avellino	1:2
17.05.14	Modena - Avellino	1:0
22.12.13	Avellino - Modena	2:1

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