Match Info

Serie B - Round 31

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Catanzaro		Modena

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.48	3.32	3.04
	2.37	3.53	2.8	Watch
	2.38	3.3	2.7
	2.53	3.29	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (3.01)	3.32 ↑ (3.18)	2.83 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
38.6%

Draw
28.3%

Modena
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

29.1%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

28.3%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Catanzaro's performance.

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Modena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Catanzaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Modena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	61.9%	19%

Catanzaro - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Modena will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 72.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 6. Fellipe Jack 27. Favasuli C. 32. Rispoli F. 20. Pontisso S. 30. Alesi G. 14. Liberali M. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 8. Pittarello F.	22. Pezzolato M. (G) 25. Dellavalle A. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 17. Massolin Y. 16. Gerli F. (C) 8. Santoro S. 29. Cotali M. 10. Ambrosino G. 99. De Luca M.
Substitutes
81. Ardizzone S. 5. Bashi E. 98. Buglio D. 94. Di Francesco F. 2. Esteves G. 62. Frosinini R. 39. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 28. Oudin R. 21. Pompetti M. 26. Verrengia B.	80. Arnaboldi P. 78. Bagheria F. (G) 24. Colpo E. 90. Imputato A. 13. Laidani A. (G) 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 18. Pyyhtia N. 77. Tonoli D. 71. Wiafe S. 98. Zanimacchia L.
Coaches
Aquilani A.	Sottil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Pittarello F. ⚽,
27', Cassandro T. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Adorni D. ⚽, Cotali M. (A),
34', Pontisso S. 🟨,
40', 2 - 1, Rispoli F. ⚽, Liberali M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Adorni D. ↓, Tonoli D. ↑,
46', Gerli F. 🟨,
55', Iemmello P. ↓, Di Francesco F. ↑,
63', Cotali M. ↓, Zanimacchia L. ↑,
63', Santoro S. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
71', Ambrosino G. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
74', Liberali M. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
74', Favasuli C. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
78', Gerli F. ↓, Wiafe S. ↑,
84', Fellipe Jack ↓, Verrengia B. ↑,
85', Pontisso S. ↓, Buglio D. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, Mendes P. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 2.

Catanzaro is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Modena has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Modena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Injury) Oudin R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Modena: Defrel G. (Inactive) Pyyhtia N. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Last Results with these Odds

Catanzaro - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 30.68%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Modena - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.24%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
11.04.26	Avellino - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Catanzaro - Monza	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Cesena - Catanzaro	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Padova - Catanzaro	1:3 ✺
08.03.26	Catanzaro - Empoli	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLWW
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
11.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Modena	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Bari - Modena	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Modena - Mantova	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Modena - Spezia	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Modena - Cesena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.12.25	Modena - Catanzaro	1:2
29.03.25	Modena - Catanzaro	2:1
06.10.24	Catanzaro - Modena	2:2
12.04.24	Modena - Catanzaro	1:3
04.11.23	Catanzaro - Modena	1:2
Coppa Italia
31.07.22	Modena - Catanzaro	3:1

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