Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Final

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Puskas Arena (Budapest)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Serbia	Arena Premium 1, RTS 2
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Slovenia	Pop TV, SportKlub 1
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	Paris Saint-Germain		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	3.1
	2.25	3.4	3.2
	2.4	3.35	3.15
	2.41	3.34	3.25
	2.3	3.33	3.38	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.2
	2.41	3.37	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.28)	3.34 ↑ (3.17)	3.23 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
41.3%

Draw
28.8%

Arsenal
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

30.3%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

31.2%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.1%	12.2%	23.7%

Paris Saint Germain - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 127 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 81 - 63.8%). Arsenal will win (votes: 31 - 24.4%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 55.4% – 72.2%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Arsenal (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Arsenal (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Arsenal (2.32) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - PSG (2.10) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH 0 - Arsenal (2.17) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

DC - PSG (1.40) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - PSG (5.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 19 - 54.3%). Arsenal (votes: 15 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.	1. Raya D. (G) 3. Mosquera C. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 5. Hincapie P. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 41. Rice D. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 7. Saka B. 29. Havertz K. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
29. Barcola B. 4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I. 33. Zaire-Emery W.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 33. Calafiori R. 56. Dowman M. 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 14. Gyökeres V. 20. Madueke N. 11. Martinelli G. 23. Merino M. 16. Norgaard C. 12. Timber J. 36. Zubimendi M.
Coaches
Luis Enrique	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Havertz K. ⚽, Trossard L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mosquera C. 🟨,
54', Saka B. 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Dembele O. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Mosquera C. ↓, Timber J. ↑,
66', Odegaard M. ↓, Gyökeres V. ↑,
83', Trossard L. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
83', Saka B. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
83', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
90+6', Neves J. 🟨,
90+6', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Lewis-Skelly M. ↓, Zubimendi M. ↑,
91', Havertz K. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
95', Ruiz F. ↓, Zaire-Emery W. ↑,
98', Gyökeres V. 🟨,
103', Rice D. 🟨,
103', Arteta M. 🟨,
106', Marquinhos ↓, Zabarnyi I. ↑,
106', Vitinha ↓, Beraldo L. ↑,
118', Mendes N. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Ramos G. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Gyökeres V. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Doue D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Eze E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Mendes N. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Rice D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hakimi A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Martinelli G. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Beraldo L. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Gabriel (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Neutral location - Puskás Aréna.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 2.

In recent matches, PSG has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Arsenal: White B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, PSG won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, PSG won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.52% Arsenal: 11.4%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
17.05.26	Paris FC - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
13.05.26	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.05.26	Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
02.05.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lorient	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWTT
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
24.05.26	Crystal Palace - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
18.05.26	Arsenal - Burnley	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	West Ham United - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.05.26	Arsenal - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
02.05.26	Arsenal - Fulham	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
07.05.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal	2:1
29.04.25	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1
01.10.24	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	2:0
International Champions Cup
28.07.18	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	5:1
UEFA Champions League
23.11.16	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2
13.09.16	Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal	1:1

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