Match Info

Serie B - Round 38

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: U-Power Stadium (Brianteo) (Monza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	20:30	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
International	18:30	Onefootball


	Monza		Empoli

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	4	Watch
	1.7	3.75	4.6
	1.68	3.85	4.45	Watch
	1.77	3.95	4.93
	1.68	3.98	4.58	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.4
	1.68	4	4.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.67)	3.85 ↑ (3.82)	4.49 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
55.1%

Draw
24.2%

Empoli
20.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24.4%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

23.4%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	0%	46.2%

Monza - Empoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Empoli will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 3 - 60%). Empoli (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Empoli (2.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Empoli (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Thiam D. (G) 44. Carboni A. 15. Delli Carri F. 3. Lucchesi L. 24. Bakoune A. 8. Hernani 32. Pessina M. (C) 19. Birindelli S. 30. Caso G. 10. Cutrone P. 37. Petagna A.	21. Fulignati A. (G) 26. Candela A. 34. Guarino G. 4. Romagnoli S. 20. Lovato M. (C) 7. Elia S. 8. Magnino L. 18. Ghion A. 14. Yepes G. 11. Shpendi S. 19. Nasti M.
Substitutes
25. Alvarez A. 6. Antov V. 17. Balde K. 2. Brorsson A. 27. Capolupo S. 26. Ciurria P. 21. Colombo L. 28. Colpani A. 47. Mota D. 14. Obiang P. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 43. Strajnar A. (G)	99. Bianchi F. 15. Ceesay J. 2. Curto M. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 17. Fila D. 32. Haas N. 10. Ilie R. 27. Moruzzi B. 5. Obaretin N. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 70. Saporiti E.
Coaches
Bianco P.	Caserta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Shpendi S. ⚽,
4', Pessina M. 🟨,
18', Guarino G. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Petagna A. ⚽, Cutrone P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ghion A. ↓, Degli Innocenti D. ↑,
60', Bakoune A. ↓, Mota D. ↑,
60', Petagna A. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Delli Carri F. ⚽, Caso G. (A),
67', Birindelli S. 🟨,
70', Hernani ↓, Colombo L. ↑,
70', Caso G. ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
72', Nasti M. ↓, Popov B. ↑,
72', Elia S. ↓, Ceesay J. ↑,
74', Romagnoli S. 🟨,
76', Lovato M. 🟨,
81', Yepes G. ↓, Haas N. ↑,
86', Birindelli S. ↓, Antov V. ↑,
87', Romagnoli S. ↓, Bianchi F. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Shpendi S. ⚽, Guarino G. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monza won 1.

Monza is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Empoli is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Monza is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Monza won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Monza won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Empoli	8	2	1	5	7:13	-6	7

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Empoli: 0.61%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Mantova - Monza	3:2 ✺
24.04.26	Monza - Modena	1:0 ✺
17.04.26	Sampdoria - Monza	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Monza - Bari	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Catanzaro - Monza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWWT
- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Empoli - Avellino	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Venezia - Empoli	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Empoli - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Padova - Empoli	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Sampdoria - Empoli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
01.10.25	Empoli - Monza	1:1
Italian Serie A
18.05.25	Monza - Empoli	1:3
17.08.24	Empoli - Monza	0:0
21.01.24	Empoli - Monza	3:0
26.08.23	Monza - Empoli	2:0
04.03.23	Monza - Empoli	2:1
15.10.22	Empoli - Monza	1:0

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