Match Info

Serie B - Round 37

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Danilo Martelli (Mantova) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sacchi J. L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	15:00	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
International	13:00	Onefootball


	Mantova		Monza

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.71	Watch
	4.2	3.6	1.78
	4.45	3.55	1.75	Watch
	4.87	3.65	1.82
	4.65	3.7	1.73	Watch
	4	3.4	1.75
	5.07	3.55	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.57 ↑ (3.77)	3.56 ↓ (3.6)	1.75 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mantova
20.5%

Draw
26.2%

Monza
53.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.1%

26.2%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

26.6%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Monza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	13.3%	66.7%

Mantova - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Monza will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 96. Maggioni T. 21. Trimboli S. 80. Kouda R. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 23. Marras T. 19. Ruocco F. 9. Mancuso L. (C)	20. Thiam D. (G) 13. Ravanelli L. 15. Delli Carri F. 3. Lucchesi L. 19. Birindelli S. 14. Obiang P. 32. Pessina M. (C) 7. Azzi P. 28. Colpani A. 10. Cutrone P. 37. Petagna A.
Substitutes
22. Andrenacci L. (G) 77. Buso N. 28. Caprini M. 18. Falletti C. 15. Goncalves T. 33. Marai C. 36. Paoletti F. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D. 98. Zuccon F.	25. Alvarez A. 6. Antov V. 24. Bakoune A. 17. Balde K. 2. Brorsson A. 27. Capolupo S. 44. Carboni A. 30. Caso G. 21. Colombo L. 8. Hernani 47. Mota D. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G)
Coaches
Modesto F.	Bianco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', Dembele A. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Kouda R. ⚽, Trimboli S. (A),
28', Petagna A. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Mancuso L. ⚽, Marras T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', Colpani A. ↓, Caso G. ↑,
56', Delli Carri F. ↓, Bakoune A. ↑,
56', Obiang P. ↓, Hernani ↑,
57', Hernani 🟨,
59', Cella S. 🟨,
66', Azzi P. ↓, Mota D. ↑,
73', Marras T. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
73', Ruocco F. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
74', Petagna A. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Lucchesi L. ⚽,
80', Kouda R. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
80', Mancuso L. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
88', Paoletti F. 🟨,
89', 2 - 2, Mota D. ⚽, Hernani (A),
90+5', 3 - 2, Benaissa-Yahia F. ⚽, Trimboli S. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 2.

Mantova has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Monza is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Monza is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Muscle Injury) Bonfanti N. (Ankle Injury) Chrysopoulos K. (Inactive) Mensah D. (Injury) Meroni A. (Inactive) Muci N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Monza: Azzi P. (Inactive) Colombo L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mantova: Benaissa-Yahia F. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mantova won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Mantova	7	4	2	1	13:8	5	14

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Mantova: 1.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
25.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Mantova	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Mantova - Avellino	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Spezia - Mantova	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Mantova - Virtus Entella	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Modena - Mantova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLWWL
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
24.04.26	Monza - Modena	1:0 ✺
17.04.26	Sampdoria - Monza	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Monza - Bari	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Catanzaro - Monza	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Monza - Venezia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
23.08.25	Monza - Mantova	1:0
Italian Serie C Group A
14.03.15	Monza - Mantova	0:1
25.10.14	Mantova - Monza	0:0
Italian Lega Pro C2/A
23.03.14	Mantova - Monza	0:1
16.11.13	Monza - Mantova	1:2
17.03.13	Mantova - Monza	0:2

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