Match Info

Serie B - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Marchetti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Italy	LAB Channel, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Uno, TV8
Slovenia	Sport TV1
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Venezuela	DSPORTS+ Plus


	Catanzaro		Monza

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.85	2.75	Watch
	2.62	2.98	2.72	Watch
	2.79	3.11	2.95
	2.85	2.72	3	Watch
	2.63	2.88	2.75
	2.75	3.05	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (2.98)	2.93 ↓ (3.46)	2.84 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
34.7%

Draw
32.1%

Monza
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

26.8%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

25.8%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Monza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Monza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	44.4%	44.4%

Catanzaro - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Monza will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Catanzaro (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 23. Brighenti N. 27. Favasuli C. 10. Petriccione J. 20. Pontisso S. 30. Alesi G. 14. Liberali M. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 8. Pittarello F.	20. Thiam D. (G) 13. Ravanelli L. 19. Birindelli S. 44. Carboni A. 24. Bakoune A. 21. Colombo L. 32. Pessina M. (C) 7. Azzi P. 28. Colpani A. 47. Mota D. 10. Cutrone P.
Substitutes
5. Bashi E. 77. D'Alessandro M. 94. Di Francesco F. 6. Fellipe Jack 62. Frosinini R. 39. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 28. Oudin R. 21. Pompetti M. 32. Rispoli F. 26. Verrengia B.	25. Alvarez A. 6. Antov V. 2. Brorsson A. 27. Capolupo S. 30. Caso G. 26. Ciurria P. 15. Delli Carri F. 8. Hernani 3. Lucchesi L. 14. Obiang P. 37. Petagna A. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G)
Coaches
Aquilani A.	Bianco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Ravanelli L. ↓, Delli Carri F. ↑,
45+2', Colombo L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Colpani A. ↓, Hernani ↑,
64', Mota D. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
74', Colombo L. ↓, Caso G. ↑,
74', Cutrone P. ↓, Obiang P. ↑,
76', Alesi G. ↓, Di Francesco F. ↑,
76', Pontisso S. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
77', 0 - 1, Hernani ⚽, Obiang P. (A),
83', Petagna A. 🟨,
84', Iemmello P. ↓, Oudin R. ↑,
84', Liberali M. ↓, D'Alessandro M. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Caso G. ⚽, Petagna A. (A),
90', Caso G. 🟨,
90+4', D'Alessandro M. 🟨,
90+6', Petriccione J. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Monza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Monza: Balde K. (Coach's decision)

There are questionable in Catanzaro: Favasuli C. (Injury) Petriccione J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Catanzaro won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Last Results with these Odds

Catanzaro - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 31.12%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
20.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Catanzaro - Palermo	3:0 ✺
12.05.26	Catanzaro - Avellino	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Catanzaro - Bari	2:3 ✺
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWLL
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
19.05.26	Monza - Juve Stabia	2:1 ✺
16.05.26	Juve Stabia - Monza	2:2 ✺
08.05.26	Monza - Empoli	2:2 ✺
01.05.26	Mantova - Monza	3:2 ✺
24.04.26	Monza - Modena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
06.04.26	Catanzaro - Monza	1:1
04.10.25	Monza - Catanzaro	2:1

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