Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Brianteo (Monza)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Monza		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.95	Watch
	1.88	3.55	3.98	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.75
	1.88	3.44	4.39	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.78)	3.45 ↑ (3.43)	4.12 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
50.3%

Draw
27%

Frosinone
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

27.2%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

29.2%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	38.5%	15.4%

Monza - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Frosinone will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 1 - 25%). Frosinone (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Thiam D. (G) 2. Brorsson A. 3. Lucchesi L. 44. Carboni A. 19. Birindelli S. 8. Hernani 32. Pessina M. (C) 7. Azzi P. 28. Colpani A. 47. Mota D. 37. Petagna A.	22. Palmisani L. (G) 20. Oyono A. 30. Monterisi I. (C) 3. Calvani G. 79. Bracaglia G. 14. Calo G. 8. Koutsoupias I. 16. Cichella M. 7. Ghedjemis F. 9. Raimondo A. 17. Kvernadze G.
Substitutes
25. Alvarez A. 24. Bakoune A. 17. Balde K. 27. Capolupo S. 26. Ciurria P. 21. Colombo L. 15. Delli Carri F. 9. Maric M. 14. Obiang P. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 13. Ravanelli L. 12. Vailati A. (G)	2. Cittadini G. 19. Corrado N. 10. Gelli F. 6. Gelli J. 18. Grosso F. 92. Kone B. L. 12. Lolic E. (G) 5. Marchizza R. 21. Oyono J. 75. Pisseri M. (G) 90. Vergani E. 28. Zilli M.
Coaches
Bianco P.	Alvini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Ghedjemis F. ⚽, Kvernadze G. (A),
12', Bracaglia G. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Hernani ⚽,
39', Hernani 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mota D. ↓, Balde K. ↑,
61', Colpani A. ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
62', Hernani ↓, Obiang P. ↑,
66', Kvernadze G. ↓, Gelli F. ↑,
67', Cichella M. ↓, Kone B. L. ↑,
67', Kone B. L. 🟨,
73', 2 - 1, Petagna A. ⚽, Azzi P. (A),
74', Calo G. 🟨,
75', Koutsoupias I. ↓, Zilli M. ↑,
76', Kone B. L. 🟨,
81', Bracaglia G. ↓, Marchizza R. ↑,
81', Oyono A. ↓, Cittadini G. ↑,
82', Lucchesi L. ↓, Delli Carri F. ↑,
83', Balde K. 🟨,
88', 2 - 2, Monterisi I. ⚽, Calo G. (A),
89', Birindelli S. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
90+2', Pessina M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monza won 3.

In recent matches, Monza has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Frosinone is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Monza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Monza: Antov V. (Knee Injury) Forson O. (Knee Injury) Galazzi N. (Inactive) Obiang P. (Injury)

There will not play in Frosinone: Oyono A. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Monza won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Monza won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
10.01.26	Virtus Entella - Monza	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Modena - Monza	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Monza - Carrarese	4:1 ✺
13.12.25	Venezia - Monza	2:0 ✺
08.12.25	Monza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLT
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
10.01.26	Frosinone - Catanzaro	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Empoli - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pescara - Frosinone	1:2 ✺
08.12.25	Frosinone - Juve Stabia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
18.10.25	Frosinone - Monza	0:1
Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Monza - Frosinone	0:1
Italian Serie A
19.05.24	Monza - Frosinone	0:1
06.01.24	Frosinone - Monza	2:3
Coppa Italia
07.08.22	Monza - Frosinone	3:2
Italian Serie B
25.04.22	Frosinone - Monza	4:1
11.12.21	Monza - Frosinone	3:2

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