Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio 25 de Noviembre (Moquegua)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Moquegua		Cajamarca

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.6
	2.07	3.25	3.97
	2.02	3.28	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3	3.6
	2.04	3.13	3.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.06)	3.2 ↓ (3.51)	3.7 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moquegua
45.6%

Draw
29.1%

Cajamarca
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.6%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

23.3%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moquegua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moquegua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cajamarca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Moquegua - Cajamarca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Moquegua will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Cajamarca will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moquegua: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grados C. (G) 4. Perleche A. 30. Granda J. 3. Enciso C. 15. Amasifuen N. 10. Chavez N. (C) 25. Chipao R. 7. Lastre E. 8. Mejia C. 90. Collazos J. 17. Zapata Y.	1. Mosquera C. (G) 30. Vega J. C. 14. Rodas A. 5. Bernaola B. 26. Timana H. 31. Enciso S. 20. Meza C. 18. Orejuela J. G. 11. Arrasco M. 10. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 9. Barcos H. (C)
Substitutes
16. Davila A. 29. Figueroa R. (G) 13. Lojas J. 22. Montenegro E. 9. Negron M. 14. Ramirez C. 20. Ramirez D. 77. Ruiz K. 88. Torres R.	12. Aspajo S. (G) 27. Betancourt J. 44. Gomez C. 29. Ocas F. 67. Paico K. 17. Palacios B. 25. Paucar E. 19. Peralta S. 4. Rosell Delgado J. A.
Coaches
Serna J.	Ayala Gavilan C. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Chipao R. ⚽, Enciso C. (A),
40', Timana H. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 2 - 0, Mejia C. ⚽, Amasifuen N. (A),
62', Vega J. C. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
64', Chavez N. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
64', Lastre E. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
68', Meza C. 🟨,
73', Barcos H. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Enciso C. ↓, Lojas J. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Palacios B. ⚽,
83', Perleche A. ↓, Montenegro E. ↑,
83', Zapata Y. ↓, Ruiz K. ↑,
90+4', Enciso S. ↓, Peralta S. ↑,
90+5', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Betancourt J. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 18).

Recent performances by Moquegua have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cajamarca is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Moquegua may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Moquegua could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Moquegua: Ruiz K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Gallardo J. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Moquegua won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Moquegua won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	18:24	-6	11
16	Moquegua	11	1	4	6	7:19	-12	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.26	Cienciano - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Moquegua - Juan Pablo II College	3:0 ✺
03.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Moquegua	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Moquegua - Cusco	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Alianza Atlético - Moquegua	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWWLL
- FC Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
22.04.26	Cusco - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
06.04.26	Cajamarca - Los Chankas	0:1 ✺
20.03.26	Cienciano - Cajamarca	3:0 ✺
13.03.26	Cajamarca - Comerciantes Unidos	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
02.11.25	Cajamarca - Moquegua	2:0
26.10.25	Moquegua - Cajamarca	2:1
06.09.25	Cajamarca - Moquegua	2:1
02.08.25	Moquegua - Cajamarca	2:0

Moquegua - Cajamarca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide