Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Nacional Montevideo		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.25	3
	2.35	3.3	3	Watch
	2.35	3.37	3.2
	2.35	3.37	3.15
	2.2	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.32	3.38	3.07	Watch
	2.33	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.15)	3.32 ↑ (3.27)	3.03 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
40.6%

Draw
28.3%

Libertad Asuncion
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.6%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

29.8%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Nacional Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mejia L. (G) 14. Lozano L. 5. Romero F. 13. Antoni M. 11. Baez Corradi G. 7. Galeano A. 10. Pereyra M. (C) 26. Sanabria L. 16. Castro A. 9. Bentancourt R. 20. Carneiro G.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 5. Viera D. 14. Cardozo L. 17. Espinoza M. 21. Sanabria L. 26. Caballero H. 6. Campuzano A. 10. Melgarejo L. (C) 28. Fernandez M. 24. Santa C. R.
Substitutes
6. Cairus F. 33. Chagas Rodrigo 30. Ebere C. 17. Ginella F. 19. Gonzalez G. 31. Helguera T. 32. Martinez F. 18. Recoba J. 29. Santander F. 25. Suarez I. (G) 2. Velazquez E. 22. Zabala D.	9. Aguilar G. 20. Bareiro A. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 18. Franco I. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 27. Jacquet M. 19. Lezcano R. 22. Martinez H. 11. Mendieta W. 8. Merlini B. 13. Silva A. 23. Vera E.
Coaches
Recoba A.	Galeano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Lozano L. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Lozano L. ⚽, Baez Corradi G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Fernandez M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Bentancourt R. ⚽, Baez Corradi G. (A),
68', Bentancourt R. ↓, Recoba J. ↑,
68', Castro A. ↓, Helguera T. ↑,
70', Sanabria L. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
70', Campuzano A. ↓, Merlini B. ↑,
71', Espinoza M. 🟨,
73', Bareiro A. 🟨,
76', Carneiro G. ↓, Santander F. ↑,
76', Pereyra M. ↓, Zabala D. ↑,
84', Santa C. R. ↓, Vera E. ↑,
84', Espinoza M. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
86', Sanabria L. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Nacional is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Nacional won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.03.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
23.03.24	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.03.24	Nacional Montevideo - Always Ready	3:1 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.03.24	Always Ready - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWTL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
30.03.24	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:0 ✺
16.03.24	General Caballero JLM - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
11.03.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	4:1 ✺
26.02.24	Libertad Asuncion - Tacuary	1:1 ✺
18.02.24	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
05.04.12	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Montevideo	2:1

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