Match Info

Premier League - Round 19

Date: 30 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.2	1.57
	5.8	4.35	1.58
	5.64	4.48	1.59	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.57
	5.94	4.37	1.62	Watch
	5.75	4.25	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.73 ↑ (5.15)	4.26 ↑ (3.87)	1.58 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
16.7%

Draw
22.5%

Newcastle United
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

24.4%

57.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

24%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	11.7%	80%

Burnley - Newcastle United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Newcastle (1.97) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Burnley (5.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Burnley (5.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (48 of 57 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.74% – 93.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (24 of 25 users predict this - 96%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Newcastle (votes: 26 - 86.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 5. Esteve M. 18. Ekdal H. 23. Lucas Pires 29. Laurent J. 16. Florentino 8. Ugochukwu L. 10. Edwards M. 27. Broja A. 17. Tchaouna L.	1. Pope N. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 3. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 9. Wissa Y. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
11. Anthony J. 34. Banel J. 35. Barnes A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 12. Humphreys B. 54. Pimlott O. 22. Sonne O. 31. Tresor Ndayishimiye M. 13. Weiss M. (G)	85. Alabi S. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 62. Neave S. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 61. Shahar L. 28. Willock J. 27. Woltemade N.
Coaches
Parker S.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Joelinton ⚽,
7', 0 - 2, Wissa Y. ⚽,
15', Esteve M. ↓, Humphreys B. ↑,
23', 1 - 2, Laurent J. ⚽, Broja A. (A),
28', Walker K. 🟨,
28', Joelinton 🟨,
32', Florentino 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
72', Barnes H. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
74', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
80', Wissa Y. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
80', Gordon A. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
88', Florentino ↓, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ↑,
88', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Bruno Guimaraes ⚽,
90+4', Joelinton ↓, Willock J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 0.

Recent form of Burnley has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Newcastle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Burnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Foster L. (International duty) Mejbri H. (Suspended) Roberts C. (Groin Injury) Tuanzebe A. (International duty)

There will not play in Newcastle: Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Burn D. (Chest Injury) Elanga A. (Knock) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Lascelles J. (Muscle Injury) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Cullen J. (Injury) Esteve M. (Knock) Worrall J. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:25. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 57.24%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
27.12.25	Burnley - Everton	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Bournemouth - Burnley	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Burnley - Fulham	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Burnley - Crystal Palace	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTLLL
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
26.12.25	Manchester United - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.25	Sunderland - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1
04.05.24	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:4
30.09.23	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:0
22.05.22	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:2
04.12.21	Newcastle United - Burnley	1:0
English League Cup
25.08.21	Newcastle United - Burnley	0:1 penalties
English Premier League
11.04.21	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:2

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