Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Sport 24 Extra


	Nottingham Forest		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4.5
	1.75	3.8	4.8
	1.76	3.88	4.8
	5.13	3.11	1.83	Watch
	1.84	3.81	4.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (1.78)	3.68 ↑ (3.67)	4.14 ↓ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
44.3%

Draw
29.5%

Sunderland
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.1%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

27.6%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nottingham Forest's form might have worsened.

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sunderland's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nottingham Forest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sunderland, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.1%	14.3%	19.6%

Nottingham Forest - Sunderland Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Nottingham will win (votes: 37 - 66.1%). Sunderland will win (votes: 11 - 19.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 53.7% – 78.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Nottingham (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Nottingham (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - draw (2.09) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nottingham Forest will win (24 of 27 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 26 - 89.7%). Sunderland (votes: 3 - 10.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Sels M. (G) 3. Williams N. 31. Milenkovic N. 4. Morato 35. Zinchenko O. 16. Dominguez N. 8. Anderson E. 29. Bakwa D. 24. McAtee J. 14. Ndoye D. 11. Wood Ch. (C)	22. Roefs R. (G) 32. Hume T. 20. Mukiele N. 15. Alderete O. 26. Masuaku A. 11. Rigg C. 34. Xhaka G. (C) 27. Sadiki N. 7. Talbi C. 18. Isidor W. 28. Le Fee E.
Substitutes
23. Cunha 10. Gibbs-White M. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 21. Hutchinson O. 19. Igor Jesus 13. John Victor (G) 15. Kalimuendo A. 6. Sangare I. 22. Yates R.	24. Adingra S. 5. Ballard D. 9. Brobbey B. 6. Geertruida L. 12. Mayenda E. 4. Neil D. 13. O'Nien L. 1. Patterson A. (G) 25. Traore B.
Coaches
Postecoglou A.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Sadiki N. 🟨,
31', Masuaku A. 🟨,
36', Dominguez N. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Alderete O. ⚽, Xhaka G. (A),
38', Milenkovic N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dominguez N. ↓, Gibbs-White M. ↑,
49', Williams N. 🟨,
59', Rigg C. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
59', Masuaku A. ↓, Geertruida L. ↑,
60', McAtee J. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
60', Ndoye D. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
72', Bakwa D. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
75', Le Fee E. ↓, Ballard D. ↑,
82', Anderson E. 🟨,
85', Isidor W. ↓, Brobbey B. ↑,
85', Talbi C. ↓, Adingra S. ↑,
90', Wood Ch. ↓, Kalimuendo A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 7).

Recent form of Nottingham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sunderland has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sunderland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nottingham has had a series of away games.

In this match, Nottingham is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Dominguez N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sunderland: Alese A. (Shoulder Injury) Cirkin D. (Wrist Injury) Diarra H. (Groin Injury) Hjelde L. F. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Mandava R. (Red Card) Mundle R. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Douglas Luiz (Hamstring Injury) Murillo (Injury)

There are questionable in Sunderland: O'Nien L. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Betis - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
17.09.25	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Nottingham Forest - West Ham United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTLLL
- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
21.09.25	Sunderland - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Crystal Palace - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Sunderland - Brentford	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Sunderland - Huddersfield Town	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Burnley - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.07.24	Nottingham Forest - Sunderland	1:1
English League Championship
30.12.17	Nottingham Forest - Sunderland	0:1
12.09.17	Sunderland - Nottingham Forest	0:1

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