Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 20

Date: 28 November 2023, Tuesday


	Sutton United		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.8
	2.5	3.5	2.6
	2.45	3.6	2.7
	2.57	3.6	2.8
	2.57	3.49	2.8
	2.4	3.5	2.6
	2.44	3.58	2.68	Watch
	2.43	3.45	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.95)	3.53 ↑ (3.43)	2.7 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sutton United
38.2%

Draw
26.8%

Crewe Alexandra
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

26.8%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

25.9%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sutton United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sutton United's performance.

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crewe Alexandra might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sutton United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crewe Alexandra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	28.6%	35.7%

Sutton United - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Sutton will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Crewe will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sutton: 10.6% – 60.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Arnold S. (G) 22. Kizzi J. 4. Sowunmi O. 33. Angol L. 6. John L. 23. Jackson R. 8. N'Guessan C. 10. Beautyman H. (C) 7. Coley J. 9. Smith H. 16. Clay C.	1. Davies H. (G) 6. Offord L. (C) 15. O'Riordan C. 5. Demetriou M. 2. Cooney R. 8. Thomas C. 30. White J. 3. Adebisi R. 10. Tracey S. 9. Baker-Richardson C. 20. Nevitt E.
Substitutes
14. Dundas C. 19. Fadahunsi T. 13. House B. (G) 40. O'Brien A. 11. Patrick O. 18. Pereira D.	33. Agius C. 28. Billington L. 13. Booth T. (G) 16. Colkett Ch. 29. Kempster-Down Z. 35. Robinson N. 21. Rowe A.
Coaches
Gray M.	Bell L.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Sutton is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Crewe in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Crewe have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Sutton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Sutton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sutton United
English League Two
25.11.23	Grimsby Town - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.11.23	Charlton Athletic - Sutton United	3:0 ✺
English League Two
18.11.23	Sutton United - Tranmere Rovers	1:1 ✺
11.11.23	Colchester United - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
04.11.23	Sutton United - Fylde	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLTTW
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
25.11.23	Crewe Alexandra - Doncaster Rovers	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.11.23	Crewe Alexandra - Newcastle United U21	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.11.23	Derby County - Crewe Alexandra	1:3 ✺
English League Two
11.11.23	Crewe Alexandra - Notts County	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.23	Crewe Alexandra - Derby County	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.9 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
04.03.23	Sutton United - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
16.08.22	Crewe Alexandra - Sutton United	1:0

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