Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 31

Date: 3 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Purkiss S. (Eng)


	Portsmouth		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	7
	1.46	4.33	6.75
	1.47	4.5	6.5
	1.43	4.3	6.8
	1.46	4.62	7.36
	1.4	4.33	7
	1.47	4.45	6.85	Watch
	1.4	4.4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.58)	4.43 ↑ (4.02)	6.88 ↑ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
65.1%

Draw
21.2%

Northampton Town
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

23.3%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

24%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Portsmouth - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Norris W. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 18. Shaughnessy C. 46. McIntyre T. 6. Ogilvie C. 26. Lowery T. 7. Pack M. (C) 49. Lang C. 44. Peart-Harris M. 32. Lane P. 9. Bishop C.	1. Burge L. (G) 15. Willis J. 12. Monthe M. 5. Guthrie J. (C) 20. Lintott H. 21. Leonard M. 23. Hondermarck W. 33. Brough P. 19. Bowie K. 11. Pinnock M. 7. Hoskins S.
Substitutes
25. Kamara A. 13. Macey M. (G) 29. Martin J. 23. Moxon O. 20. Raggett S. 15. Saydee C. 21. Sparkes J.	9. Appere L. 8. Fox B. 29. Gape D. 31. Moulden L. (G) 6. Sherring S. 16. Simpson T. 28. Springett T.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Brady J.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 4.

Recent matches Portsmouth is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Northampton is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Portsmouth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Portsmouth have a series of guest games.

In this match Portsmouth is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 23-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League One
30.01.24	Oxford United - Portsmouth	2:2 ✺
27.01.24	Port Vale - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
20.01.24	Fleetwood Town - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
13.01.24	Portsmouth - Leyton Orient	0:3 ✺
06.01.24	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWWLL
- Northampton Town
English League One
27.01.24	Northampton Town - Shrewsbury Town	0:2 ✺
23.01.24	Charlton Athletic - Northampton Town	2:3 ✺
13.01.24	Northampton Town - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
01.01.24	Northampton Town - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
29.12.23	Lincoln City - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
02.12.23	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	0:3
06.03.21	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	4:1
27.10.20	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	4:0
English EFL Trophy
03.12.19	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	2:1
English League One
30.12.17	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	3:1
English EFL Trophy
02.12.17	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	2:0
English League One
12.09.17	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	3:1

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