Match Info

Championship - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Watford		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.2	4.33	Watch
	1.95	3.3	4.1
	1.96	3.46	3.95	Watch
	1.93	3.59	4.32
	3.89	3.15	2.04	Watch
	1.94	3.32	3.99	Watch
	1.95	3.45	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.9)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)	3.82 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
44.7%

Draw
29.5%

Oxford United
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.4%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

27.4%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	38.9%	5.6%

Watford - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Oxford will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watford: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Watford (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Oxford (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Watford (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Oxford (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Selvik E. (G) 3. Alleyne M. 4. Keben K. 25. Abankwah J. 2. Ngakia J. 11. Vata R. 23. Mendy N. 26. Wiley C. 10. Louza I. (C) 18. Semedo V. 66. Irankunda N.	1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Spencer B. 6. Helik M. 2. Long S. 22. Leigh G. 17. Mills S. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 8. Brannagan C. 23. Dembele S. 16. Prelec N. 27. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 16. Bola M. 39. Kayembe E. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 5. Kyprianou H. 29. Petris J. 6. Pollock M. 17. Sissoko M.	20. Bradshaw T. 26. Currie J. 29. Davies B. 19. Goodrham T. 12. Harris L. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 7. Placheta P. 4. Vaulks W.
Coaches
Pezzolano P.	Rowett G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Alleyne M. (Own goal),
5', Brannagan C. 🟨,
30', Mills S. 🟨,
32', Semedo V. ↓, Kjerrumgaard L. ↑,
39', Keben K. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Ngakia J. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, Ngakia J. ⚽,
45+5', Helik M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Kjerrumgaard L. 🟨,
54', Louza I. 🟨,
57', Mills S. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
57', Lankshear W. ↓, Vaulks W. ↑,
70', Vata R. ↓, Kayembe E. ↑,
70', Wiley C. ↓, Petris J. ↑,
70', Louza I. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,
73', Leigh G. ↓, Currie J. ↑,
85', Dembele S. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
85', Prelec N. ↓, Bradshaw T. ↑,
87', Irankunda N. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
90+2', Currie J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 16 and 21).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Watford is the team to beat.

There will not play in Watford: Chakvetadze G. (Foot Injury) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Oxford: Brown C. (Knee Injury) Phillips M. (Thigh Injury) ter Haar Romeny O. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Watford: Dwomoh P. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Johnson J. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Watford won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Watford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
01.10.25	Portsmouth - Watford	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Watford - Hull City	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Millwall - Watford	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Watford - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Watford - Southampton	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLLT
- Oxford United
English League Championship
01.10.25	Queens Park Rangers - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Oxford United - Sheffield United	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Bristol City - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Oxford United - Leicester City	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Oxford United - Coventry City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
15.03.25	Oxford United - Watford	1:0
08.11.24	Watford - Oxford United	1:0
English League Cup
15.09.20	Oxford United - Watford	1:2 penalties

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