Match Info

Championship - Round 12

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Portsmouth		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.05	2.55	Watch
	2.87	3.26	2.52	Watch
	2.83	3.3	2.62
	2.89	3.13	2.55	Watch
	2.74	3.2	2.54	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.89)	3.17 ↑ (3.13)	2.56 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
33.2%

Draw
29.8%

Stoke City
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

30.2%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

30.8%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	27.8%	22.2%

Portsmouth - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Stoke will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Stoke (1.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Stoke (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Portsmouth will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Stoke (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Bursik J. (G) 2. Williams J. 14. Matthews H. 5. Poole R. 3. Ogilvie C. 7. Pack M. (C) 21. Dozzell A. 36. Chaplin C. 9. Bishop C. 47. Yang Min-Hyuk 25. Kirk M.	1. Johansson V. (G) 16. Wilmot B. (C) 40. Talovierov M. 26. Phillips A. 3. Cresswell A. 4. Pearson B. 10. Bae J. 42. Manhoef M. 8. Baker L. 7. Thomas S. 9. Mubama D.
Substitutes
11. Bianchini F. 17. Bowat I. 24. Devlin T. 30. Killip B. (G) 4. Knight J. 18. Kosznovszky M. 16. Le Roux L. 23. Murphy J. 22. Swanson Z.	50. Agina S. 13. Bonham J. (G) 11. Bozenik R. 29. Cisse L. 14. Donley J. 23. Gibson B. 15. N'Zonzi S. 19. Rigo T. 12. Seko T.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Kirk M. 🟨,
41', Pack M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Thomas S. 🟨,
61', Mubama D. 🟨,
67', Yang Min-Hyuk ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
67', Williams J. ↓, Devlin T. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Matthews H. (Own goal),
70', Bae J. ↓, Rigo T. ↑,
71', Matthews H. ↓, Knight J. ↑,
85', Dozzell A. ↓, Kosznovszky M. ↑,
87', Talovierov M. 🟨,
90+1', Pearson B. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,
90+5', Baker L. ↓, Seko T. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Farrell J. (Groin Injury) Lang C. (Hamstring Injury) Schmid N. (Wrist Injury) Shaughnessy C. (Hamstring Injury) Swift J. (Yellow Cards) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Bae J. (Shoulder Injury) Gallagher S. (Muscle Injury) Tchamadeu J. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Murphy J. (Ankle Injury) Segecic A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Lawal B. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 1.3:3.3).

Including home match between the teams, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
21.10.25	Portsmouth - Coventry City	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Leicester City - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	1:0 ✺
01.10.25	Portsmouth - Watford	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ipswich Town - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTWTL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
21.10.25	Millwall - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Stoke City - Wrexham	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.01.25	Portsmouth - Stoke City	3:1
02.10.24	Stoke City - Portsmouth	6:1
English League Cup
27.08.14	Stoke City - Portsmouth	3:0

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