Match Info

Serie B - Round 33

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Crezzini V. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Italy	LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Palermo		Avellino

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	6	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5.5	Watch
	1.58	4.05	6.37
	1.54	4.13	5.78	Watch
	1.53	3.7	5.75
	1.58	3.92	5.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.46)	3.92 ↓ (4.34)	5.83 ↓ (6.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
60.2%

Draw
23.8%

Avellino
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

21.5%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

20.8%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palermo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Palermo - Avellino Predictions

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
66. Joronen J. (G) 29. Peda P. 13. Bani M. (C) 32. Ceccaroni P. 27. Pierozzi N. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 21. Le Douaron J. 5. Palumbo A. 20. Pohjanpalo J.	30. Daffara G. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 44. Simic L. 4. Izzo A. 3. Sala M. 24. Sounas D. 6. Palmiero L. 39. Besaggio M. 20. Palumbo M. 9. Patierno C. (C) 14. Biasci T.
Substitutes
19. Bereszynski B. 28. Blin A. 77. Di Bartolo F. (G) 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 1. Gomis A. (G) 11. Gyasi E. 96. Magnani G. 14. Vasic A. 72. Veroli D.	21. Armellino M. 56. Enrici P. 63. Fontanarosa A. 1. Iannarilli A. (G) 94. Insigne R. 16. Kumi J. 27. Le Borgne A. 78. Milani A. 2. Missori F. 8. Pandolfi L. 10. Russo R. 7. Tutino G.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Ballardini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Palumbo A. ⚽, Le Douaron J. (A),
33', Palmiero L. ↓, Le Borgne A. ↑,
37', Izzo A. 🟨,
37', Pierozzi N. 🟨,
43', Izzo A. 🟨,
45+2', Simic L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Besaggio M. ↓, Enrici P. ↑,
46', Patierno C. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
46', Pierozzi N. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
57', Joronen J. ↓, Gomis A. ↑,
64', Biasci T. ↓, Insigne R. ↑,
66', Gyasi E. 🟨,
71', Palumbo A. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
72', Segre J. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
80', Sounas D. ↓, Tutino G. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Ranocchia F. ⚽, Pohjanpalo J. (A),
85', Bani M. ↓, Magnani G. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 2.

Palermo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Avellino has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Palermo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palermo is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Palermo: Modesto R. (Red Card)

There will not play in Avellino: Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Iannarilli A. (Inactive) Reale F. (Muscle Injury) Sgarbi L. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16
5	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11:7	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
21.03.26	Padova - Palermo	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Palermo - Juve Stabia	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Monza - Palermo	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Carrarese - Palermo	0:1 ✺
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLWW
- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
22.03.26	Sampdoria - Avellino	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Avellino - Südtirol-Alto Adige	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Virtus Entella - Avellino	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Avellino - Padova	1:0 ✺
03.03.26	Venezia - Avellino	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2
Italian Serie C Group C
13.03.22	Avellino - Palermo	1:2
31.10.21	Palermo - Avellino	1:1
Italian Serie C Group A
26.05.21	Avellino - Palermo	1:0
23.05.21	Palermo - Avellino	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
07.02.21	Avellino - Palermo	1:0
11.10.20	Palermo - Avellino	0:2

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