Match Info

Serie B - Round 32

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, FOX One, Fox Soccer Plus
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Palermo

	1	X	2
	5	4.2	1.57	Watch
	4.75	4	1.63
	4.55	3.55	1.72	Watch
	5.2	3.68	1.76
	4.92	3.66	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.4	1.73
	4.81	3.55	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.83 ↑ (3.96)	3.72 ↑ (3.4)	1.69 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
19.4%

Draw
25.2%

Palermo
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

27.2%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

26.4%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Padova - Palermo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Palermo will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 4. Belli F. 58. Pastina C. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 7. Varas K. (C) 77. Di Mariano F. 18. Ghiglione P. 20. Bortolussi M. 15. Lasagna K.	66. Joronen J. (G) 18. Modesto R. 13. Bani M. (C) 32. Ceccaroni P. 27. Pierozzi N. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 5. Palumbo A. 7. Johnsen D. 20. Pohjanpalo J.
Substitutes
13. Boi A. 92. Buonaiuto C. 24. Caprari G. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 86. Giunti G. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 10. Papu Gomez 11. Seghetti A. 55. Villa L.	19. Bereszynski B. 28. Blin A. 31. Corona G. 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 1. Gomis A. (G) 11. Gyasi E. 21. Le Douaron J. 96. Magnani G. 29. Peda P. 14. Vasic A. 72. Veroli D.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Modesto R. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palumbo A. ↓, Peda P. ↑,
48', Ceccaroni P. 🟨,
54', Ceccaroni P. ↓, Magnani G. ↑,
58', Fusi P. ↓, Papu Gomez ↑,
59', Di Mariano F. 🟨,
64', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
64', Segre J. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
65', Bortolussi M. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
65', Ghiglione P. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
78', Johnsen D. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
80', Belli F. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
90', Pastina C. 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Bani M. ⚽,
90+7', Pastina C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 0.

Recent form of Padova has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palermo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Palermo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Barreca A. (Inactive) Faedo C. (Yellow Cards) Harder J. (Injury) Papu Gomez (Inactive) Sgarbi F. (Inactive) Silva J. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Padova won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Palermo - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.44%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
17.03.26	Venezia - Padova	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Padova - Catanzaro	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Avellino - Padova	1:0 ✺
03.03.26	Padova - Spezia	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Modena - Padova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LLLTW
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
17.03.26	Palermo - Juve Stabia	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Monza - Palermo	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Carrarese - Palermo	0:1 ✺
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Pescara - Palermo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0
Italian Serie C Group B
12.06.22	Palermo - Padova	1:0
05.06.22	Padova - Palermo	0:1
Italian Serie B
22.04.19	Palermo - Padova	1:1
08.12.18	Padova - Palermo	1:3
08.02.14	Palermo - Padova	1:0
08.09.13	Padova - Palermo	0:3

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