Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Globoplay, RedeTV!, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Palmeiras		River Plate

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	5	Watch
	1.78	3.35	4.7	Watch
	1.81	3.45	5
	3.61	3.04	2.18	Watch
	1.81	3.39	5.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.82)	3.31 ↓ (3.48)	4.4 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
46.7%

Draw
30.4%

River Plate
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

27.2%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

26.5%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palmeiras's form might have worsened.

River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palmeiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	6.2%	0%

Palmeiras - River Plate Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Palmeiras (3.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palmeiras will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 10 - 90.9%). River Plate (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Weverton (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 30. Lucas Evangelista 5. Moreno A. 8. Pereira A. 42. Lopez J. 7. Felipe Anderson 9. Vitor Roque	1. Armani F. (C) 4. Montiel G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 13. Rivero L. 21. Acuna M. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 5. Portillo J. 22. Castano K. 10. Quintero J. 26. Fernandez N. 7. Salas M.
Substitutes
40. Allan 3. Bruno Fuchs 11. Bruno Rodrigues 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 13. Micael 23. Raphael Veiga 19. Sosa R. 17. Torres F.	41. Beltran S. (G) 14. Boselli S. 16. Bustos F. 20. Casco M. 11. Colidio F. 17. Diaz P. 23. Galarza M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 39. Lencina S. 9. Miguel Borja 24. Perez E.
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Salas M. ⚽, Quintero J. (A),
23', Portillo J. 🟨,
27', Portillo J. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
45+3', Weverton 🟨,
45+3', Giuliano Galoppo 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 1 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽,
55', Acuna M. 🟨,
56', Vitor Roque 🟨,
60', Quintero J. ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
60', Fernandez N. ↓, Lencina S. ↑,
60', Gomez G. ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
67', Salas M. 🟨,
70', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
75', Perez E. 🟨,
78', Pereira A. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
78', Moreno A. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
87', Acuna M. 🟨,
89', Castano K. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 1, Lopez J. (Pen),
90+3', Felipe Anderson ↓, Allan ↑,
90+3', Vitor Roque ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Raphael Veiga (A),

Preview

1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg.

Palmeiras has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, River Plate has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Khellven (Foot Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There will not play in River Plate: Costantini G. (Inactive) Martinez P. (Calf Injury) Meza M. (Knee Injury) Pezzella G. (Knee Injury) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury) Subiabre I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in River Plate: Driussi S. (Injury)

We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Palmeiras won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 52.05%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.25	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.25	River Plate - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Palmeiras - Internacional RS	4:1 ✺
31.08.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWTW
- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.25	Atlético Tucumán - River Plate	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.25	River Plate - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.09.25	Estudiantes La Plata - River Plate	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	River Plate - San Martín de San Juan	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
28.08.25	Unión Santa Fe - River Plate	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
17.09.25	River Plate - Palmeiras	1:2

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