Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Nubank Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 3
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Palmeiras		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	7.00	Watch
	1.47	4.33	6.75
	1.49	3.90	7.00	Watch
	1.50	4.25	8.23
	1.71	3.68	5.24	Watch
	1.48	4.15	7.80
	1.49	4.22	7.41	Watch
	1.46	4.20	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.63)	4.13 ↑ (3.78)	7.05 ↑ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
63.4%

Draw
23.1%

São Paulo
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

24.4%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

23.3%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Palmeiras - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Palmeiras (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 26. Murilo 15. Gomez G. (C) 3. Bruno Fuchs 4. Giay A. 8. Andreas Pereira 30. Lucas Evangelista 22. Piquerez J. 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J. 9. Vitor Roque	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 28. Newton 2. Toloi R. (C) 54. Luis Osorio 18. Wendell 48. Djhordney 29. Pablo Maia 11. Ferreira 80. Cauly 27. Victor Sa 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 29. Bilong M. C. 21. Bruno Bertinato (G) 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 39. Heittor Vinicius 12. Khellven 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E.	37. Artur 94. Danielzinho 34. dos Santos P. 12. Iago Borduchi 53. Isac 9. Jonathan Calleri 19. Lucas Ramon 8. Marcos Antonio 46. Pedro Ferreira 23. Rafael (G) 5. Robert Arboleda 43. Santana G.
Coaches
Martins J.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Pablo Maia 🟨,
40', Luis Osorio 🟥,
45+1', 1 - 0, Murilo ⚽,
45+4', Gomez G. 🟨,
45+5', Giay A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Piquerez J. ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
46', Cauly ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,
46', Giay A. ↓, Khellven ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Vitor Roque ⚽, Khellven (A),
65', Andre Silva ↓, Artur ↑,
65', Wendell ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
65', Djhordney ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
67', Arias J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
67', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Luis Pacheco ↑,
77', Murilo 🟨,
77', Ferreira ↓, dos Santos P. ↑,
77', Lopez J. ↓, Larson ↑,
87', Larson 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 5.

Palmeiras is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, São Paulo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Barboza A. (Red Card) Jefte (Knee Injury) Marlon Freitas (Yellow Cards) Paulinho (Muscle Injury) Sosa R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Bobadilla D. (Inactive) Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lucca Marques (Jaw injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:14. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.4:0.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 36.7% Sao Paulo: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 56.51%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Palmeiras - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Santos - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Mirassol - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.08.26	Palmeiras - Santos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTTTW
- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Boca Juniors - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.08.26	São Paulo - Bolívar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
21.03.26	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1
Brazilian Serie A
05.10.25	São Paulo - Palmeiras	2:3
11.05.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.03.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0

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