Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Parc des Princes (Paris)

Referee: Scharer S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paris Saint-Germain		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	2.3	4	2.7
	2.38	4	2.72
	2.42	4.07	2.77
	2.48	4.06	2.62	Watch
	2.4	3.7	2.6
	2.47	4.03	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.26)	3.98 ↓ (4.02)	2.7 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
40%

Draw
24.2%

Bayern Munich
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

23.9%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

26.4%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bayern Munich, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.3%	15.2%	54.5%

Paris Saint Germain - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 18 - 29%). Bayern will win (votes: 34 - 54.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 42.4% – 67.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bayern (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Bayern (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Bayern (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.	1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 19. Davies A. 6. Kimmich J. 45. Pavlovic A. 17. Olise M. 10. Musiala J. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
29. Barcola B. 4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 8. Ruiz F. 6. Zabarnyi I.	8. Goretzka L. 21. Ito H. 11. Jackson N. 3. Kim Min-Jae 27. Laimer K. 34. Ofli D. 43. Pavic F. 26. Ulreich S. (G) 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Luis Enrique	Danks A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
12', Marquinhos 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),
24', 1 - 1, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, Doue D. (A),
33', 2 - 1, Neves J. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
41', 2 - 2, Olise M. ⚽, Pavlovic A. (A),
45+5', 3 - 2, Dembele O. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Davies A. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
56', 4 - 2, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
58', 5 - 2, Dembele O. ⚽, Doue D. (A),
64', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Ruiz F. ↑,
65', 5 - 3, Upamecano D. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
68', 5 - 4, Diaz L. ⚽, Kane H. (A),
70', Doue D. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
77', Ruiz F. 🟨,
79', Musiala J. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,
80', Hakimi A. 🟨,
84', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,
84', Mendes N. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
90+3', Pavlovic A. ↓, Jackson N. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 1.

PSG is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in PSG: Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Bischof T. (Calf Injury) Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Guerreiro R. (Muscle Injury) Karl L. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ndiaye B. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, PSG won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, PSG won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.52% Bayern Munich: 11.41%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3
2	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	5:0	5	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
25.04.26	Angers - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
22.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Nantes	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lyon	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.04.26	Liverpool - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	4:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
11.04.26	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	1:2
FIFA Club World Cup
05.07.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	2:0
UEFA Champions League
26.11.24	Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0
08.03.23	Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain	2:0
14.02.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	0:1
13.04.21	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	0:1
07.04.21	Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3

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