Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 27

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday

Location: Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani (Pineto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport MIX


	Pineto		Ternana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.4	3	2.15	Watch
	3.64	3	2.21
	3.54	2.86	2.2	Watch
	3.4	2.75	2.1
	3.57	2.85	2.13	Watch
	3.75	2.9	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (2.7)	2.89 ↓ (3.1)	2.15 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pineto
25.8%

Draw
31.6%

Ternana
42.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33%

28.7%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

28.6%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pineto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pineto's form might have worsened.

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pineto than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pineto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Pineto - Ternana Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ternana will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ternana (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tonti A. (G) 4. Postiglione N. 52. Frare D. 3. Ienco S. 16. Gagliardi L. 8. Germinario G. 21. Lombardi L. 5. Schirone L. 11. Borsoi M. 99. Pellegrino A. 9. D'Andrea F.	71. D'Alterio F. (G) 20. Donati F. (C) 13. Maestrelli A. 87. Martella B. 17. Kerrigan L. 23. Majer Z. 4. Vallocchia A. 43. Ndrecka A. 30. Orellana M. 32. Pettinari S. 9. Dubickas E.
Substitutes
6. Amadio S. 19. Biggi S. 77. Boccacci F. 80. El Haddad S. 35. Giannini D. 1. Marone F. (G) 7. Marrancone A. 28. Nebuloso G. 23. Serbouti A. 10. Spina M. 18. Viero F.	22. Aramu M. 36. Delibra L. (G) 27. Ferrante A. 16. Garetto M. 2. Kurti A. 10. Leonardi S. 42. Lodovici R. 8. McJannet E. 14. Meccariello B. 12. Morlupo A. (G) 3. Pagliari M. 18. Panico G. 80. Proietti M. 5. Tripi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, Dubickas E. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, Martella B. ⚽,
42', Borsoi M. 🟨,
45+1', Kerrigan L. 🟨,
45+1', Lombardi L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Borsoi M. ↓, Biggi S. ↑,
46', Martella B. ↓, Pagliari M. ↑,
46', Gagliardi L. ↓, Serbouti A. ↑,
65', 0 - 3, Pettinari S. ⚽,
67', Dubickas E. ↓, Leonardi S. ↑,
67', Majer Z. ↓, Garetto M. ↑,
67', Pettinari S. ↓, Ferrante A. ↑,
73', D'Andrea F. ↓, Spina M. ↑,
73', Lombardi L. ↓, El Haddad S. ↑,
74', Ienco S. 🟨,
80', Schirone L. ↓, Nebuloso G. ↑,
85', Orellana M. ↓, McJannet E. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In recent matches, Pineto has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ternana is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ternana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ternana might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pineto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Pineto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Pineto	10	2	5	3	8:11	-3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Pineto - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.01%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Ternana - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 38.25%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Pineto Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
08.02.26	Pineto - Ascoli	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	Juventus U23 - Pineto	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Pineto - Campobasso	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Pontedera - Pineto	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Pineto - Guidonia Montecelio	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLWTT
- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
12.02.26	Ternana - Ravenna	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Pontedera - Ternana	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Ternana - Sassari Torres	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
28.01.26	Potenza - Ternana	1:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
24.01.26	Carpi - Ternana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
04.10.25	Ternana - Pineto	2:1
17.01.25	Pineto - Ternana	1:0
15.09.24	Ternana - Pineto	3:0

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