Match Info

League Two - Round 46

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Miles J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Port Vale		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	8	Watch
	1.63	3.75	5
	1.44	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.34	7.41
	1.43	4.31	7.42	Watch
	1.65	3.7	5
	1.41	4.29	7.93	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.59)	4.17 ↑ (3.85)	6.97 ↑ (5.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Port Vale
63.8%

Draw
22.6%

Gillingham
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

24.3%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

23.6%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Port Vale - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Gillingham will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Port Vale: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Gillingham (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Gillingham (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Amos B. (G) 22. Debrah J. 6. Smith N. 5. Hall C. 2. Clark M. 18. Croasdale R. 7. Byers G. (C) 38. Walters R. 33. Headley J. 19. Tolaj L. 11. Curtis R.	1. Morris G. (G) 2. Hutton R. 30. Gale S. 4. Masterson C. 3. Clark M. 36. Corness D. 14. McKenzie R. (C) 21. Williams E. 11. Rowe A. 28. Agbinone A. 19. Morgan J.
Substitutes
40. Broome N. (G) 32. Hackford A. 45. Harper R. 16. Lowe J. 26. Richards R. 23. Shorrock J. 9. Stockley J.	9. Andrews J. 6. Coleman E. 23. Dack B. 33. Holtam T. (G) 16. Khumbeni N. 22. Ogie S. 40. Webster H.
Coaches
Moore D.	Ainsworth G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 1, Rowe A. ⚽, Williams E. (A),
57', Smith N. ↓, Stockley J. ↑,
57', Croasdale R. ↓, Richards R. ↑,
62', Williams E. ↓, Dack B. ↑,
62', Morgan J. ↓, Coleman E. ↑,
63', Corness D. ↓, Khumbeni N. ↑,
67', Hutton R. 🟨,
69', Rowe A. ↓, Ogie S. ↑,
77', Walters R. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
77', Curtis R. ↓, Harper R. ↑,
81', Clark M. 🟨,
81', Agbinone A. ↓, Andrews J. ↑,
84', Headley J. ↓, Shorrock J. ↑,
86', McKenzie R. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 17).

Port Vale is Qualified for League One

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Port Vale is the team to beat.

There will not play in Port Vale: Garrity B. (Injury) Heneghan B. (Inactive) Kyle John (Inactive) Sang T. (Injury)

There will not play in Gillingham: Andrews J. (Knee Injury) Gbode J. (Red Card) Williams J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Port Vale: Hart S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Gillingham: Ehmer M. (Inactive) Hawkins O. (Injury) Little A. (Injury) Nevitt E. (Injury) Smith A. (Injury) Williams E. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Vale won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League Two
26.04.25	AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Port Vale - Grimsby Town	2:2 ✺
18.04.25	Carlisle United - Port Vale	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Port Vale - Bromley	5:0 ✺
05.04.25	Walsall - Port Vale	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTLWW
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
26.04.25	Gillingham - Swindon Town	1:1 ✺
21.04.25	Gillingham - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Cheltenham Town - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
08.04.25	Chesterfield - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.11.24	Gillingham - Port Vale	1:0
English League One
11.02.17	Gillingham - Port Vale	1:1
17.09.16	Port Vale - Gillingham	2:1
16.04.16	Gillingham - Port Vale	0:2
15.08.15	Port Vale - Gillingham	1:1
03.01.15	Port Vale - Gillingham	2:1
29.11.14	Gillingham - Port Vale	2:2

Upcoming Matches