Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 21 February 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Malaysia	Astro
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Porto		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.8	1.62
	5.5	3.9	1.63
	5.5	4	1.65	Watch
	5.5	3.95	1.66
	5.57	3.97	1.67
	5	3.8	1.62
	5.8	4.01	1.69
	5.4	3.9	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.5 ↑ (4.61)	3.92 ↑ (3.71)	1.65 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
17.4%

Draw
24.5%

Arsenal
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

25.7%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

25.7%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	7.9%	86.8%

Porto - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (131 of 151 users predict this - 86.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.34% – 92.16%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (G) 23. Joao Mario 31. Otavio 3. Pepe (C) 18. Wendell 16. Nico 22. Varela A. 10. Conceicao F. 11. Pepê 13. Galeno 30. Evanilson	22. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 15. Kiwior J. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 41. Rice D. 19. Trossard L. 7. Saka B. 29. Havertz K. 11. Martinelli G.
Substitutes
28. Baro R. 70. Borges G. 2. Cardoso F. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 6. Eustaquio S. 20. Franco A. 8. Grujic M. 17. Ivan Jaime 29. Martinez T. 97. Pedro J. 15. Sanchez J.	17. Cedric 25. Elneny M. 79. Heaven A. 31. Hein K. (G) 20. Jorginho 73. Lannin-Sweet J. 24. Nelson R. 14. Nketiah E. 63. Nwaneri E. 1. Ramsdale A. (G) 10. Smith Rowe E. 21. Vieira F.
Coaches
Conceicao S.	Arteta M.

Preview

1st leg.

Porto is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arsenal is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Arsenal is a favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Ribeiro G. (Injury) Taremi M. (Thigh Injury) Zaidu (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Injury) Partey T. (Muscle Injury) Timber J. (Knee Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Injury) Zinchenko O. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Vieira F. (Groin Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
17.02.24	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
12.02.24	Arouca - Porto	3:2 ✺
03.02.24	Porto - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
28.01.24	Farense - Porto	1:3 ✺
20.01.24	Porto - Moreirense	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTWW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
17.02.24	Burnley - Arsenal	0:5 ✺
11.02.24	West Ham United - Arsenal	0:6 ✺
04.02.24	Arsenal - Liverpool	3:1 ✺
30.01.24	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
20.01.24	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW

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