Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	10	6.25	1.25
	12.5	6.1	1.25
	10	5.61	1.32
	8.97	5.41	1.32	Watch
	13	5.76	1.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.89 ↑ (8.97)	5.83 ↑ (5.41)	1.29 ↓ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
8.8%

Draw
16.5%

Arsenal
74.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.6%

17.5%

71.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.5%

17.3%

72.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Burnley - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 5 - 12.5%). Arsenal will win (votes: 30 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 61.6% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1 - Burnley (3.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Arsenal (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Arsenal (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Arsenal (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Arsenal (votes: 16 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 29. Laurent J. 6. Tuanzebe A. 3. Hartman Q. 24. Cullen J. (C) 16. Florentino 8. Ugochukwu L. 11. Anthony J. 5. Esteve M. 19. Flemming Z.	1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 33. Calafiori R. 10. Eze E. 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. (C) 14. Gyökeres V. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
35. Barnes A. 27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 10. Edwards M. 18. Ekdal H. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 17. Tchaouna L. 13. Weiss M. (G)	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 5. Hincapie P. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 23. Merino M. 3. Mosquera C. 16. Norgaard C. 22. Nwaneri E. 4. White B.
Coaches
Parker S.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Gyökeres V. ⚽, Gabriel (A),
27', Cullen J. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Rice D. ⚽, Trossard L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gyökeres V. ↓, Merino M. ↑,
55', Flemming Z. 🟨,
62', Anthony J. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
62', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
72', Eze E. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
72', Calafiori R. ↓, Hincapie P. ↑,
76', Flemming Z. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
76', Laurent J. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
77', Zubimendi M. ↓, Norgaard C. ↑,
83', Cullen J. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
90+1', Trossard L. ↓, Lewis-Skelly M. ↑,
90+5', Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 0.

Recent performances by Burnley have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Arsenal has had a series of home games.

In this match, Arsenal is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Madueke N. (Knee Injury) Odegaard M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Martinelli G. (Injury) Saliba W. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 8:33. (average 0.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:13. (average 0.3:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.32 are the expected chance of winning is 71.88%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
26.10.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Burnley - Leeds United	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Aston Villa - Burnley	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Burnley - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLLL
- Arsenal FC
English League Cup
29.10.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
26.10.25	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Arsenal - Atlético Madrid	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
18.10.25	Fulham - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Arsenal - West Ham United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
17.02.24	Burnley - Arsenal	0:5
11.11.23	Arsenal - Burnley	3:1
23.01.22	Arsenal - Burnley	0:0
18.09.21	Burnley - Arsenal	0:1
06.03.21	Burnley - Arsenal	1:1
13.12.20	Arsenal - Burnley	0:1
02.02.20	Burnley - Arsenal	0:0

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