Match Info

Championship - Round 46

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Viaplay
Iceland	11:30	Viaplay
Norway	13:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
United Kingdom	12:30	Sky Sports+


	Portsmouth		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.5	1.96	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.75
	3.56	3.56	2.03	Watch
	3.65	3.67	2.08
	3.39	3.63	2.07	Watch
	3.4	3.4	2
	3.64	3.64	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (2.43)	3.56 ↑ (3.35)	2.14 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
28.4%

Draw
26.9%

Birmingham City
44.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.6%

28.1%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

28.3%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Portsmouth's form might have worsened.

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Birmingham City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Portsmouth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birmingham City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

Portsmouth - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Birmingham will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Killip B. (G) 2. Williams J. 14. Matthews H. 17. Bowat I. 3. Ogilvie C. (C) 16. Le Roux L. 21. Dozzell A. 10. Segecic A. 8. Swift J. 27. Alli M. 40. Brown J.	25. Beadle J. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 31. Wagner K. 14. Solis Romero J. E. 24. Iwata T. 23. Vicente C. 28. Stansfield J. 17. Osman I. 29. Priske A.
Substitutes
38. Adams E. 36. Chaplin C. 25. Kirk M. 7. Pack M. 5. Poole R. 1. Schmid N. (G) 6. Shaughnessy C. 28. Swann R. 20. Waddingham T.	21. Allsop R. (G) 20. Cochrane A. 7. Doyle T. 33. Ducksch M. 10. Gray D. 2. Laird E. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 37. Panzo J. 16. Roberts P.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Segecic A. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
17', Stansfield J. ↓, Paik Seung-Ho ↑,
19', 1 - 1, Priske A. ⚽, Wagner K. (A),
21', Swift J. ↓, Chaplin C. ↑,
39', Le Roux L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ogilvie C. ↓, Poole R. ↑,
54', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Doyle T. ↑,
63', Vicente C. 🟨,
71', Matthews H. ↓, Shaughnessy C. ↑,
71', Alli M. ↓, Waddingham T. ↑,
81', Segecic A. 🟨,
82', Osayi-Samuel B. 🟨,
82', Mousinho J. 🟨,
84', Le Roux L. ↓, Pack M. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 18 and 10).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Portsmouth won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 3.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20:12	8	20
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16:15	1	18

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Birmingham: 7.86% Portsmouth: 1.55%

Last Results with these Odds

Portsmouth - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.65%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
25.04.26	Stoke City - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
21.04.26	Coventry City - Portsmouth	5:1 ✺
18.04.26	Portsmouth - Leicester City	1:0 ✺
14.04.26	Portsmouth - Ipswich Town	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28 WLWWW
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
25.04.26	Birmingham City - Bristol City	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Birmingham City - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Hull City - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Birmingham City - Wrexham	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Ipswich Town - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.11.25	Birmingham City - Portsmouth	4:0
English League Cup
06.08.19	Portsmouth - Birmingham City	3:0
English League Championship
20.03.12	Portsmouth - Birmingham City	4:1

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