Match Info

Championship - Round 2

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Derby County		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.50	3.10	Watch
	2.20	3.40	3.20
	2.00	3.40	3.55	Watch
	2.27	3.45	3.36
	2.1	3.58	3.36	Watch
	2.20	3.40	3.30
	2.30	3.57	3.17	Watch
	1.81	3.65	4.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.73)	3.49 ↓ (3.7)	3.42 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
44.8%

Draw
27.3%

Cardiff City
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

25.3%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

26.9%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cardiff City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cardiff City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	8.3%	58.3%

Derby County - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Cardiff will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Cardiff (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 22. Johnston M. 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 18. Taylor C. 27. Travis L. (C) 20. Mowatt A. 29. Fraulo O. 8. Clark B. 33. Blackett-Taylor C. 9. Morris C.	1. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 44. Kpakio R. 3. Bagan J. 23. Scanlon C. 8. Moylan J. 18. Robertson A. 11. Tanner O. 10. Colwill R. (C) 45. Ashford C. 9. Salech Y.
Substitutes
13. Bilbija F. 10. Brewster R. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 26. Hedges R. 24. Nyambe R. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.	40. Anyadike N. 27. Colwill J. 39. Davies I. 47. Robinson C. 33. Tankiewicz R. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G) 30. Tyrer H. (G) 16. Willock C.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', Blackett-Taylor C. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Ashford C. ⚽, Kpakio R. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Clark B. (A),
39', 1 - 2, Salech Y. ⚽, Colwill R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 2 - 2, Clark B. ⚽,
53', Robertson A. 🟨,
55', Fraulo O. 🟨,
59', Colwill R. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
59', Ashford C. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
60', Travis L. 🟨,
64', Fraulo O. ↓, Hedges R. ↑,
65', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
71', Moylan J. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
71', Tanner O. ↓, Davies I. ↑,
80', Johnston M. 🟨,
85', Sanderson D. 🟨,
88', Johnston M. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
88', Morris C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.

Recent form of Derby has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cardiff is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.

Derby might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Fish W. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Derby: Clarke M. (Injury) Murkin D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Lawlor D. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Derby won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.6:1.2).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Cardiff: 0.41% Derby: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11:14	-3	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.03%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
15.08.26	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Derby County - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.26	Rotherham United - Derby County	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:0 ✺
31.07.26	Mansfield Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTLW
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
17.08.26	Cardiff City - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Cardiff City - Roma	4:1 ✺
25.07.26	Forest Green Rovers - Cardiff City	1:5 ✺
14.07.26	Cork City - Cardiff City	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
25.01.25	Cardiff City - Derby County	2:1
14.09.24	Derby County - Cardiff City	1:0
07.05.22	Derby County - Cardiff City	0:1
01.03.22	Cardiff City - Derby County	1:0
02.03.21	Cardiff City - Derby County	4:0
28.10.20	Derby County - Cardiff City	1:1
14.07.20	Cardiff City - Derby County	2:1

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