Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY

Date: 10 October 2023, Tuesday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Hallam F. (Eng)


	Portsmouth		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.75	6.5
	1.36	5	7	Watch
	1.36	5.14	7.43
	1.4	4.33	6
	1.34	5	7.4
	1.35	4.8	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.62)	4.84 ↑ (3.8)	6.86 ↑ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
67.6%

Draw
19%

Gillingham
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

22.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gillingham might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portsmouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gillingham could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Portsmouth - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Schofield R. (G) 2. Swanson Z. 20. Raggett S. (C) 4. Towler R. 21. Sparkes J. 11. Whyte G. 14. Stevenson B. 15. Saydee C. 28. Anjorin F. 25. Kamara A. 19. Yengi K.	1. Morris G. (G) 26. Orji I. 5. Ehmer M. 22. Ogie S. 3. Clark M. 17. Clarke J. 11. Jefferies D. 8. Williams J. 13. Malone S. (C) 30. Macarthur M. 9. Nichols T.
Substitutes
39. Aston M. 30. Jewitt-White H. 16. Morrell J. 35. Mottoh K. 13. Oluwayemi J. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 18. Shaughnessy C.	32. Chambers J. 34. Gale S. 35. Giles A. 4. Masterson C. 31. Sithole R. 41. Skipper S. 25. Turner J. (G)
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Millen K.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 4.

Portsmouth in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Gillingham is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Portsmouth is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Portsmouth to win the game is with odds 1.43.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League One
07.10.23	Portsmouth - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
03.10.23	Portsmouth - Wycombe Wanderers	2:1 ✺
30.09.23	Wigan Athletic - Portsmouth	1:2 ✺
23.09.23	Portsmouth - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
19.09.23	Barnsley - Portsmouth	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWW
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
07.10.23	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1 ✺
03.10.23	Crewe Alexandra - Gillingham	2:0 ✺
30.09.23	Gillingham - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
23.09.23	Doncaster Rovers - Gillingham	2:1 ✺
16.09.23	Gillingham - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.07.22	Gillingham - Portsmouth	1:2
English League One
23.04.22	Portsmouth - Gillingham	3:1
27.11.21	Gillingham - Portsmouth	0:1
27.02.21	Portsmouth - Gillingham	1:1
20.10.20	Gillingham - Portsmouth	0:2
01.01.20	Gillingham - Portsmouth	1:1
12.10.19	Portsmouth - Gillingham	0:0

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