Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Deepdale (Preston)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

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	Preston North End		Burnley

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.45
	3.1	3.1	2.55
	3.15	3.15	2.52
	3.05	3.14	2.47	Watch
	3	2.9	2.5
	3.17	3.29	2.4	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↓ (3.97)	3.13 ↓ (3.22)	2.49 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Preston North End
31.1%

Draw
30.5%

Burnley
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

29.7%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

30%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Preston North End has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Preston North End's performance.

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burnley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Preston North End than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Preston North End that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burnley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Preston North End - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Preston will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Burnley will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Woodman F. (G) 6. Lindsay L. 29. Kesler-Hayden K. 19. Gibson L. 44. Potts B. 11. Brady R. 18. Ledson R. 8. McCann A. (C) 22. Thordarson S. T. 7. Keane W. 28. Osmajic M.	32. Hladky V. (G) 2. Sonne O. 4. Worrall J. 5. Esteve M. 23. Lucas Pires 26. Shelvey J. 8. Brownhill J. (C) 10. Manuel Hedilazio B. 7. Sarmiento J. 30. Koleosho L. 17. Foster L.
Substitutes
26. Bauer P. 39. Carroll T. 13. Cornell D. (G) 12. Evans C. 20. Greenwood S. 16. Hughes A. 3. Meghoma J. 9. Riis E. 38. Tarry T.	34. Banel J. 35. Barnes A. 22. Edwards M. 6. Egan-Riley C. 19. Flemming Z. 20. Green E. (G) 29. Laurent J. 15. Redmond N. 14. Roberts C.
Coaches
Heckingbottom P.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
28', Thordarson S. T. 🟨,
30', Lucas Pires 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Brady R. ⚽,
35', Kesler-Hayden K. 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Osmajic M. ⚽, Potts B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Shelvey J. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
58', Koleosho L. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
58', Manuel Hedilazio B. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
67', Ledson R. 🟨,
67', Foster L. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
68', Sarmiento J. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
71', Brady R. ↓, Hughes A. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Keane W. ⚽, Hughes A. (A),
77', Keane W. ↓, Riis E. ↑,
84', Ledson R. ↓, Greenwood S. ↑,
84', Osmajic M. ↓, Evans C. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Preston won 0.

Recent matches Preston is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Burnley is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Burnley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Burnley will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Preston: Holmes D. (Broken Leg) Storey J. (Leg Injury) Whatmough J. (Calf Injury) Whiteman B. (Ankle Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Preston won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:13 (average 0.7:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Preston won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:8 (average 0.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Preston North End
English League Championship
22.02.25	Coventry City - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
18.02.25	Preston North End - Millwall	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Preston North End - Burnley	0:0 ✺
11.02.25	Norwich City - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Preston North End - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LTTWW
- Burnley FC
English League Championship
21.02.25	Burnley - Sheffield Wednesday	4:0 ✺
15.02.25	Preston North End - Burnley	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Burnley - Hull City	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Southampton - Burnley	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.02.25	Burnley - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
15.02.25	Preston North End - Burnley	0:0
05.10.24	Burnley - Preston North End	0:0
11.02.23	Burnley - Preston North End	3:0
13.09.22	Preston North End - Burnley	1:1
Club Friendly
01.09.20	Preston North End - Burnley	0:0
23.07.18	Preston North End - Burnley	2:3
25.07.17	Preston North End - Burnley	1:2

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