Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport OTT 4
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+


	Southampton		Burnley

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.7
	1.98	3.5	3.8
	2	3.6	3.75
	2.06	3.58	3.85
	1.92	3.59	4	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.9
	1.98	3.65	3.9	Watch
	2	3.6	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.02)	3.57 ↑ (3.44)	3.83 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
48.2%

Draw
26.8%

Burnley
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.6%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.7%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	9.5%	19%

Southampton - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Burnley will win (votes: 4 - 19%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 52.1% – 90.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McCarthy A. (G) 14. Bree J. 35. Bednarek J. (C) 3. Manning R. 2. Walker-Peters K. 26. Ugochukwu L. 7. Aribo J. 34. Welington 18. Fernandes M. 33. Dibling T. 20. Sulemana K.	32. Hladky V. (G) 2. Sonne O. 6. Egan-Riley C. (C) 4. Worrall J. 12. Humphreys B. 23. Lucas Pires 10. Manuel Hedilazio B. 26. Shelvey J. 28. Mejbri H. 7. Sarmiento J. 35. Barnes A.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 29. Gronbaek A. 10. Lallana A. 32. Onuachu P. 30. Ramsdale A. (G) 8. Smallbone W. 16. Sugawara Y. 15. Wood N.	48. Agyei E. 34. Banel J. 41. Bauress J. 24. Cullen J. 22. Edwards M. 5. Esteve M. 19. Flemming Z. 20. Green E. (G) 15. Redmond N.
Coaches
Juric I.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Sulemana K. 🟨,
59', Egan-Riley C. ↓, Esteve M. ↑,
59', Shelvey J. ↓, Bauress J. ↑,
59', Manuel Hedilazio B. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
67', Dibling T. ↓, Onuachu P. ↑,
73', Worrall J. 🟨,
77', 0 - 1, Edwards M. ⚽, Mejbri H. (A),
82', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
83', Bree J. 🟨,
83', Sarmiento J. ↓, Redmond N. ↑,
86', Fernandes M. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
86', Sulemana K. ↓, Gronbaek A. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 2.

Recent matches S`hampton is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Burnley is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

S`hampton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match S`hampton is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20:20 (average 1.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17:11 (average 1.9:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
01.02.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Southampton - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
19.01.25	Nottingham Forest - Southampton	3:2 ✺
16.01.25	Manchester United - Southampton	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
12.01.25	Southampton - Swansea City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLLW
- Burnley FC
English League Championship
04.02.25	Burnley - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Portsmouth - Burnley	0:0 ✺
27.01.25	Burnley - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
22.01.25	Plymouth Argyle - Burnley	0:5 ✺
17.01.25	Burnley - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
21.04.22	Burnley - Southampton	2:0
23.10.21	Southampton - Burnley	2:2
04.04.21	Southampton - Burnley	3:2
26.09.20	Burnley - Southampton	0:1
15.02.20	Southampton - Burnley	1:2
10.08.19	Burnley - Southampton	3:0
02.02.19	Burnley - Southampton	1:1

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