Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Palmerston Park (Dumfries)


	Queen of the South		Dunfermline Athletic

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	1.75
	4.01	3.43	1.76
	3.98	3.62	1.79	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.8
	4.13	3.42	1.77
	4.2	3.4	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↓ (4.11)	3.41 ↓ (3.58)	1.77 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Queen of the South
22.5%

Draw
26.5%

Dunfermline Athletic
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

25.5%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

24.8%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Queen of the South has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Dunfermline Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queen of the South than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Queen of the South - Dunfermline Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Queen of the South will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Dunfermline will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dunfermline (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Guthrie K. ⚽, Smith L. (A),
11', 2 - 0, Stott J. ⚽, Smith L. (A),
41', 2 - 1, MacLeod R. ⚽, Ngwenya K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
56', Stott J. (Penalty Awarded),
74', 3 - 1, O'Donoghue F. ⚽,
76', 4 - 1, Dickenson B. ⚽, Luissint B. (A),
79', 4 - 2, Stewart B. ⚽, MacLeod R. (A),
83', 4 - 3, Stewart B. ⚽, Bray K. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Queen of the South won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Queen of the South may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dunfermline has had a series of home games.

Dunfermline will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Queen of the South won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 19:33. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Queen of the South won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Queen of the South
Scottish League One
13.12.25	Alloa Athletic - Queen of the South	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Queen of the South - Cove Rangers	1:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Queen of the South	2:1 ✺
Scottish League One
22.11.25	Inverness - Queen of the South	4:0 ✺
15.11.25	Kelty Hearts - Queen of the South	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLLT
- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish Football Championship
13.12.25	Queens Park - Dunfermline Athletic	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Queen of the South	2:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
25.11.25	Partick Thistle - Dunfermline Athletic	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Greenock Morton	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Queen of the South	2:1
Scottish League One
15.04.23	Dunfermline Athletic - Queen of the South	5:0
25.02.23	Queen of the South - Dunfermline Athletic	0:2
03.12.22	Dunfermline Athletic - Queen of the South	1:1
03.09.22	Queen of the South - Dunfermline Athletic	0:2
Scottish Football Championship
29.04.22	Dunfermline Athletic - Queen of the South	1:2
29.01.22	Queen of the South - Dunfermline Athletic	0:2

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