Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Lukjancukas M. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Fox Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN Premium
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport, Q Sport
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4, Virgin Media More
Usa	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	RB Leipzig		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	3	3.8	2.2
	3.1	3.7	2.15
	2.98	3.8	2.28
	3.22	3.81	2.21
	3.1	3.78	2.23	Watch
	3	3.5	2.2
	3.18	3.81	2.26
	2.98	3.8	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.97)	3.75 ↑ (3.6)	2.23 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
31.3%

Draw
25.6%

Sporting Lisbon
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

26.5%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

27.1%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.3%	6.6%	81.1%

RB Leipzig - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 118 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 14 - 11.9%). Sporting will win (votes: 97 - 82.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 75.3% – 89.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 3. Geertruida L. 4. Orban W. (C) 5. Bitshiabu E. 22. Raum D. 14. Baumgartner C. 13. Seiwald N. 8. Haidara A. 10. Simons X. 11. Openda L. 30. Sesko B.	1. Israel F. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 3. St. Juste J. 20. Araujo M. 21. Catamo G. 6. Debast Z. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 57. Quenda G. 17. Trincao 19. Harder C.
Substitutes
33. Dickes F. (G) 6. Elmas E. 47. Gebel V. 1. Gulacsi P. (G) 44. Kampl K. 16. Klostermann L. 7. Nusa A. 9. Poulsen Y. 18. Vermeeren A.	23. Braganca D. 50. Brito A. 78. Couto M. 47. Esgaio R. 9. Gyokeres V. 25. Inacio G. 13. Kovacevic V. (G) 5. Morita H. 86. Nel R. 51. Pinto D. (G) 71. Santos D. 52. Simoes J.
Coaches
Rose M.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Sesko B. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
29', St. Juste J. ↓, Inacio G. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Debast Z. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
55', Catamo G. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
55', Harder C. ↓, Gyokeres V. ↑,
61', Raum D. ↓, Klostermann L. ↑,
61', Simons X. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
62', Openda L. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
69', Haidara A. ↓, Kampl K. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Gyokeres V. ⚽, Braganca D. (A),
76', Fresneda I. ↓, Esgaio R. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Poulsen Y. ⚽, Baumgartner C. (A),
79', Raum D. 🟨,
84', Baumgartner C. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
86', Vandevoordt M. 🟨,
87', Orban W. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches RB Leipzig is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sporting is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

RB Leipzig could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sporting will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Andre Silva (Calf Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Matheus Reis (Thigh Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Quaresma E. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
18.01.25	Bochum - RB Leipzig	3:3 ✺
15.01.25	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen	4:2 ✺
20.12.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	5:1 ✺
15.12.24	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLWLW
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
18.01.25	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
11.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:2 penalties ✺
07.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.01.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	4:4 ✺
29.12.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWTW

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