Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 15 March 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Real Madrid		Liverpool

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.8
	2.3	3.6	2.87
	2.32	4	2.9
	2.34	3.9	2.8
	2.36	4.03	2.84
	2.3	3.7	2.88
	2.31	3.85	2.79	Watch
	2.34	3.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.26)	3.87 ↓ (3.89)	2.84 (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
41.4%

Draw
24.8%

Liverpool
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.4%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

25.4%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Liverpool has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66%	13%	21%

Real Madrid - Liverpool Predictions

Users Predictions: 100 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 66 - 66%). Liverpool will win (votes: 21 - 21%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 56.7% – 75.3%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Real is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Liverpool is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Real has already of round of 16, a very good chance of qtrs (97%), a good chance of semis (54%), a chance of final (28%), a small chance of win league (13%).

Liverpool has already of round of 16, a very small chance of qtrs (3%), a very small chance of semis (2%), a very small chance of final (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has big quality 85, very big importance 100, very big match rating 93. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Liverpool: Bajcetic S. (Muscle Injury) Diaz L. (Knee Injury) Henderson J. (Illness) Ramsay C. (Knee Injury) Thiago (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Liverpool: Gomez J. (Muscle Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Real won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Real won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
11.03.23	Real Madrid - Espanyol	3:1 ✺
05.03.23	Betis - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.03.23	Real Madrid - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.02.23	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.02.23	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTLTW
- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
11.03.23	Bournemouth - Liverpool	1:0 ✺
05.03.23	Liverpool - Manchester United	7:0 ✺
01.03.23	Liverpool - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Crystal Palace - Liverpool	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.02.23	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.02.23	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:5
28.05.22	Liverpool - Real Madrid	0:1
14.04.21	Liverpool - Real Madrid	0:0
06.04.21	Real Madrid - Liverpool	3:1
26.05.18	Real Madrid - Liverpool	3:1
04.11.14	Real Madrid - Liverpool	1:0
22.10.14	Liverpool - Real Madrid	0:3

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