Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Diaz I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Startimes Am'mobi, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin, T Sports
Belarus	Belarus 5
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	TSN+
China	Migu
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	DAZN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Disney+
Uruguay	DAZN, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	DAZN
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Real Madrid		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.75	7	Watch
	1.39	5.50	6.50
	1.36	5.3	7.3
	1.38	6	7.4
	1.41	5.6	6.9	Watch
	1.36	5.9	7.1
	1.4	5.84	7.6	Watch
	1.37	5.8	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.33)	5.71 ↓ (6)	7.05 ↓ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
69.6%

Draw
16.8%

Villarreal
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.2%

15.8%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76%

14.8%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Madrid, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	9.4%	3.1%

Real Madrid - Villarreal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Real (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Villarreal (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Villarreal (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (28 of 32 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.04% – 98.96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Villarreal (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 4.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, Real enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Real: Asencio R. (Broken Leg) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Villarreal: Buchanan T. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Real has recorded 10 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:28 (averaging 2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 18:10 goals (averaging 2:1.1 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 21.59% Villarreal: 0.27%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13:12	1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Elche - Real Madrid	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Villarreal - Levante	3:1 ✺
17.09.26	Málaga - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
14.09.26	Villarreal - Betis	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Villarreal - Deportivo A Coruña	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Villarreal - Real Madrid	0:2
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1
15.03.25	Villarreal - Real Madrid	1:2
05.10.24	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:0
19.05.24	Villarreal - Real Madrid	4:4
17.12.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	4:1
08.04.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:3

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