Match Info

Date: 1 October 2022, Saturday

Location: H-E-B Park (Edinburg)

Referee: Fierro R. (Usa)


	Rio Grande Valley		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3.35	2.35
	2.31	3.4	2.55
	2.42	3.48	2.75
	2.38	3.38	2.61	Watch
	2.35	3.5	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.88)	3.4 ↓ (3.42)	2.57 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Grande Valley
37.9%

Draw
26.7%

Louisville City
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

26.6%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

27%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Grande Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rio Grande Valley's performance.

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Louisville City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Grande Valley than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Grande Valley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Louisville City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Rio Grande Valley - Louisville City Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Rio Grande Valley will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Louisville City will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Rio Grande Valley has the most likely position - 5 (36.6%), has project points - 48, has currently - 42, has a good chance of playoffs (87%), has a chance of qtrs (40%), has a chance of semis (16%), has a small chance of final (8%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Louisville City has the most likely position - 1 (57.78%), has project points - 68, has currently - 63, was already of playoffs, has a good chance of qtrs (89%), has a good chance of semis (58%), has a chance of final (35%), has a chance of win league (20%).

This event has small quality 25, small importance 19, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Rio Grande Valley is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Louisville City is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
USL Championship
23.09.22	Charleston Battery - Rio Grande Valley	0:3 ✺
17.09.22	Rio Grande Valley - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Rio Grande Valley - New Mexico United	3:1 ✺
07.09.22	El Paso Locomotive - Rio Grande Valley	0:2 ✺
31.08.22	Phoenix Rising - Rio Grande Valley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWWL
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
23.09.22	Louisville City - Memphis 901	1:2 ✺
17.09.22	Louisville City - Loudoun United	4:2 ✺
10.09.22	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Louisville City	0:0 ✺
07.09.22	Tulsa - Louisville City	2:2 ✺
03.09.22	Louisville City - Sacramento Republic	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTTW

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