Match Info

Serie A - Round 22

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1, Varzish Sport
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Roma		Milan

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.9	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.85
	2.78	2.98	2.82	Watch
	2.83	3	2.94
	2.85	3.04	2.84	Watch
	2.63	3	2.7	Watch
	2.87	3.05	2.95
	2.8	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.65)	3.01 ↑ (2.94)	2.85 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
34.6%

Draw
31.8%

Milan
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

32.3%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

33.5%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.2%	53.6%	23.2%

Roma - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Roma will win (votes: 12 - 21.8%). Milan will win (votes: 13 - 23.6%). It will Tie (votes: 30 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.3% – 67.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 5 - 20.8%). Milan (votes: 3 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 16 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Milan (1.45) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Roma (2.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 10 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Milan (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Milan (4.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Milan (votes: 10 - 30.3%). Tie (votes: 16 - 48.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 87. Ghilardi D. 19. Celik Z. 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 43. Wesley Franca 18. Soule M. 21. Dybala P. 14. Malen D.	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 5. De Winter K. 56. Saelemaekers A. 4. Ricci S. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 33. Bartesaghi D. 18. Nkunku C. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
8. El Aynaoui N. 11. Ferguson E. 95. Gollini P. (G) 77. Lulli E. 7. Pellegrini Lo. 61. Pisilli N. 12. Tsimikas K. 32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 78. Vaz R. 20. Venturino L. 24. Ziolkowski J.	24. Athekame Z. 2. Estupinan P. 19. Fofana Y. 9. Fullkrug N. 30. Jashari A. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 27. Odogu D. 31. Pavlovic S. 11. Pulisic C. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
51', Rabiot A. 🟨,
55', Athekame Z. 🟨,
59', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, De Winter K. ⚽, Modric L. (A),
68', Leao R. ↓, Fullkrug N. ↑,
69', Nkunku C. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
69', Dybala P. ↓, Pellegrini Lo. ↑,
69', Malen D. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
70', Modric L. 🟨,
74', Maignan M. 🟨,
74', 1 - 1, Pellegrini Lo. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Ricci S. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
85', Soule M. ↓, Venturino L. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Milan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Roma: Dovbyk A. (Groin Injury) Hermoso M. (Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Roma: Angelino (Lacking Match Fitness) El Shaarawy S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Roma won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:35. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Roma won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.7:1.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% AC Milan: 7.76%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Roma - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
18.01.26	Torino - Roma	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
13.01.26	Roma - Torino	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
10.01.26	Roma - Sassuolo	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Lecce - Roma	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
18.01.26	Milan - Lecce	1:0 ✺
15.01.26	Como - Milan	1:3 ✺
11.01.26	Fiorentina - Milan	1:1 ✺
08.01.26	Milan - Genoa	1:1 ✺
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Milan - Roma	1:0
18.05.25	Roma - Milan	3:1
Coppa Italia
05.02.25	Milan - Roma	3:1
Italian Serie A
29.12.24	Milan - Roma	1:1
Club Friendly
31.05.24	Roma - Milan	5:2
UEFA Europa League
18.04.24	Roma - Milan	2:1
11.04.24	Milan - Roma	0:1

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