Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 8

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	São Paulo		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	2.57	3	2.85	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.75
	2.62	2.92	2.88	Watch
	2.76	3.05	2.97
	2.69	2.99	2.93	Watch
	2.63	2.88	2.75
	2.83	3.08	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (3.03)	3 ↓ (3.42)	2.85 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
35.3%

Draw
31.5%

Palmeiras
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

27.7%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

27.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

São Paulo - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 8. Marcos Antonio 80. Cauly 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 40. Allan Elias 18. Mauricio 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 42. Maik 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 5. Robert Arboleda 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell	56. Arthur Gabriel 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 6. Jefte 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 19. Sosa R. 9. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Roger Machado	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Arias J. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
23', Diaz E. 🟨,
43', Andreas Pereira 🟨,
45+4', Carlos Miguel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
46', Franco A. ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,
46', Cauly ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
50', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
60', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
60', Andreas Pereira ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
63', Marlon Freitas ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
69', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
77', Allan Elias ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
77', Lopez J. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
79', Bobadilla D. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
80', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
81', Martinez E. 🟨,
84', Wendell 🟨,
85', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
90+4', Arias J. 🟨,
90+6', Andre Silva 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.

São Paulo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Palmeiras is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Ramon (Inactive) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Injury) Lucca Marques (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 14:29. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.9:1.1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 36.7% Sao Paulo: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
18.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
12.03.26	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Coritiba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWWLW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
18.03.26	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1
Brazilian Serie A
05.10.25	São Paulo - Palmeiras	2:3
11.05.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.03.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1

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