Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 26

Date: 24 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV6
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Salernitana		Monza

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.3
	3.2	3.2	2.32	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.38
	3.38	3.23	2.37
	3.2	3.2	2.2
	3.43	3.28	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.75)	3.23 ↑ (3.18)	2.32 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
29.2%

Draw
29.6%

Monza
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.9%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

30.3%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Salernitana's form might have worsened.

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Monza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Monza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.3%	20.9%	69.8%

Salernitana - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Salernitana will win (votes: 4 - 9.3%). Monza will win (votes: 30 - 69.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 56.1% – 83.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ochoa G. (G) 4. Pasalidis T. 44. Manolas K. 24. Pellegrino M. 59. Zanoli A. 26. Basic T. 18. Coulibaly L. 3. Bradaric D. 20. Kastanos G. 87. Candreva A. (C) 14. Weissman S.	16. Di Gregorio M. (G) 19. Birindelli S. 4. Izzo A. 22. Mari P. 44. Carboni A. 6. Gagliardini R. 32. Pessina M. (C) 28. Colpani A. 21. Carboni V. 47. Dany Mota 11. Djuric M.
Substitutes
62. Allocca P. (G) 5. Boateng J. 56. Costil B. (G) 10. Dia B. 11. Gomis I. 22. Ikwuemesi C. 99. Legowski M. 25. Maggiore G. 7. Martegani A. 6. Sambia J. 9. Simy 33. Tchaouna L. 55. Vignato E.	8. Akpa Akpro J. 38. Bondo W. 5. Caldirola L. 9. Colombo L. 33. D'Ambrosio D. 2. Donati G. 66. Gori S. (G) 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 7. Machin J. 27. Maldini D. 13. Pereira P. 79. Popovic M. 23. Sorrentino A. (G) 20. Zerbin A.
Coaches
Liverani F.	Palladino R.

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 11).

Salernitana has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Monza is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Monza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Salernitana: Gyomber N. (Injury) Pierozzi N. (Injury) Pirola L. (Injury)

There will not play in Monza: Caprari G. (Knee Injury) Papu Gomez (Suspended)

There are questionable in Monza: Di Gregorio M. (Injury) Vignato S. (Muscle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie A
16.02.24	Inter Milan - Salernitana	4:0 ✺
09.02.24	Salernitana - Empoli	1:3 ✺
04.02.24	Torino - Salernitana	0:0 ✺
29.01.24	Salernitana - Roma	1:2 ✺
21.01.24	Salernitana - Genoa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLTLL
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
18.02.24	Monza - Milan	4:2 ✺
11.02.24	Monza - Verona	0:0 ✺
03.02.24	Udinese - Monza	0:0 ✺
28.01.24	Monza - Sassuolo	1:0 ✺
21.01.24	Empoli - Monza	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.10.23	Monza - Salernitana	3:0
26.02.23	Salernitana - Monza	3:0
13.11.22	Monza - Salernitana	3:0
Italian Serie B
01.05.21	Salernitana - Monza	1:3
30.12.20	Monza - Salernitana	3:0

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